Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls come to life

18 April 2025

7 minute learn

The lean hog futures market this week has seen brief protecting from the bears and perceived worth shopping for from the bulls. The chart-based merchants additionally possible did some shopping for as June hogs are beginning to pattern larger. Stable positive aspects in cattle futures markets this week additionally possible spilled over into shopping for curiosity in hog futures. The positive aspects in lean hog futures got here regardless of persistent money hog market weak point. The most recent CME lean hog index is down one other 63 cents to $85.37 as of April 14, marking 10 straight periods of losses. The nationwide direct five-day rolling common money hog worth quote right now is $85.13. The midday pork report Wednesday confirmed pork cutout worth rose 89 cents to $92.62, led by positive aspects in ribs. Rising pork cutout values have been encouraging, with a coinciding improve in motion indicating stable demand. Grocers are ramping up pork purchases for the summer time grilling season.

Newest USDA and different information relating to the worldwide pork business

Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales

Pork: Internet gross sales of 20,500 MT for 2025 have been down 14 % from the earlier week and 35 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Japan (7,100 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,300 MT, together with decreases of 1,300 MT), Colombia (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 30,900 MT have been up 3 % from the earlier week, however down 3 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (11,100 MT), South Korea (5,300 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).

China’s Q1 pork output rises 1.2%

China’s pork output rose 1.2% from year-ago within the first quarter to 16.02 MMT. A complete of 194.76 million hogs have been slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1% improve from the identical interval final 12 months. Sometimes, pork output rises within the first quarter as a consequence of elevated hog slaughter forward of the Lunar New 12 months vacation. However the sector stays below stress, with oversupply and sluggish demand persevering with to weigh on costs and earnings. Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply, as Beijing in 2024 lowered the nationwide goal for regular retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million.

USDA Livestock Outlook: April 2025

Abstract

Beef/Cattle: The 2025 beef manufacturing outlook is raised by 15 million kilos from final month to 26.700 billion kilos. Projections for cattle costs are larger as slaughter steer costs are raised to $205.51 per hundredweight (cwt) and feeder steer costs are raised to $281.03 per cwt. Beef import and export forecasts are lowered to 4.860 billion kilos and a pair of.685 billion kilos, respectively.

Dairy: The 2025 milk manufacturing forecast is elevated to 226.9 (+0.7) billion kilos as a consequence of larger anticipated cow numbers (+25,000) and anticipated improved milk yield per cow (+10 kilos). Dairy product worth forecasts are adjusted decrease from final month’s forecasts, together with Cheddar cheese $1.790 (-2.0 cents), dry whey $0.510 (-1.50 cents), butter $2.445 (-7.0 cents), and non-fat dry milk (NDM) $1.22 (-3.5 cents). With cheaper price forecasts throughout predominant dairy merchandise, the forecasts for Class III and IV milk costs are additionally revised downward from the earlier projections to $17.60 (-$0.35) and $18.20 (-$0.60) per hundredweight (cwt), respectively. The all-milk worth for 2025 is now forecast at $21.10 per cwt, down $0.50 from final month’s forecast.

Pork/Hogs: Info from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report revealed in March helps a reasonable discount in 2025 pork manufacturing. Whole 2025 pork manufacturing is forecast at 28.1 billion kilos, down about 350 million kilos (1.2 %) from the earlier forecast in March. Costs of 2025 reside equal 51–52 % lean hogs are anticipated to common $61.14 per hundredweight, about 1 % beneath common costs in 2024. Whereas home pork demand stays sturdy, trade-related uncertainty on world markets is projected to pare down 2025 pork exports to about 7 billion kilos, about 2 % beneath exports final 12 months.

Poultry/Eggs: Projected broiler manufacturing in 2025 is adjusted up reflecting heavier weights and favorable margins, however projected broiler exports are lowered. Broiler costs are adjusted up in 2025 on latest worth knowledge and wholesome demand. Projected desk egg manufacturing is adjusted down on latest flock losses; egg and egg product imports are projected to extend whereas exports are projected to lower from 2024. Projected egg costs in 2025 are adjusted down on latest worth developments. Projected turkey meat manufacturing and exports are adjusted down on latest knowledge, whereas costs are adjusted larger.

March Hogs and Pigs Report Exhibits Largely Static Pork Sector

Estimated federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter for the primary quarter of 2025 completed out at 31.9 million head, 2.3 % beneath numbers of a 12 months earlier. The June–August 2024 pig crop, fractionally smaller than June–August 2023 numbers, provided a lot of the hogs for first-quarter 2025 processing. The comparatively giant year-over-year discount in FI slaughter numbers could, partly, be attributed to reviews of illness in some giant operations in key producing Midwestern States.

The estimated FI first-quarter pork manufacturing was about 6.9 billion kilos, 2 % decrease than a 12 months in the past, with barely heavier estimated common dressed weights offsetting a marginal quantity of the consequences of decrease animal numbers. First-quarter costs of reside equal 51–52 % hogs averaged $62.57 per hundredweight, virtually 14 % larger than throughout the identical interval final 12 months. Decrease provides of slaughter-ready hogs, and better costs of all proteins contributed to larger hog costs within the first quarter. Business pork manufacturing within the second quarter is lowered 125 million kilos to about 6.8 billion kilos. The discount is due largely to downward revisions to lighter weight classes of the September hog stock, revealed within the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, 2025.

The present forecast for second-quarter 2025 manufacturing is nearly 1 % larger than within the same-period final 12 months. Final month’s forecast—earlier than publication of the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report—confirmed second-quarter pork manufacturing up 2.4 % in contrast with a 12 months earlier. Second-quarter hog costs are prone to common $63 per hundredweight, virtually 4 % decrease than a 12 months earlier. The December–February5 pig crop will provide a lot of the completed hogs for processing within the third quarter of 2025. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reported December–February farrowings of two.892 million head, down about 1.3 % from a 12 months earlier, with a litter price of 11.65 pigs per litter, yielding a pig crop of 33.7 million head, about equal with a 12 months earlier. Third-quarter industrial pork manufacturing is forecast at 6.9 billion kilos, 2.2 % better than the identical manufacturing interval in 2024, largely as a consequence of larger anticipated slaughter ranges and heavier anticipated dressed weights than the earlier 12 months. Reside equal costs of 51–52 % lean hogs are forecast to common $65 per hundredweight throughout the third quarter of 2025, greater than 2 % better than a 12 months earlier.

The March Hogs and Pigs report revealed a second set of producers’ farrowing intentions for the March–Could manufacturing quarter. If producers comply with by on their said intentions, 2.913 million sows will farrow, a quantity fractionally decrease than a 12 months earlier. Reasonable progress in litter charges would yield a March–Could pig crop of lower than 1 % bigger, year-over-year. Fourth quarter industrial pork manufacturing is predicted to succeed in 7.45 billion kilos, about 3 % above manufacturing throughout the identical interval in 2024. Hog costs within the fourth quarter are forecast at $54 per hundredweight, virtually 13 % decrease than costs within the fourth quarter of 2024. Revisions and new info provided by the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report level to a complete of 2025 industrial pork manufacturing of 28.1 billion kilos, a lower of about 350 million kilos, about 1.2 % beneath final month’s annual forecast. For the 12 months, reside equal costs of 51-52 % lean hogs are anticipated to common $61.14 per hundredweight, down from $61.56 per hundredweight in 2024, a discount of almost 1 %. Pork Exports 12 months-Over-12 months Decrease in February U.S. pork exports in February have been 5 % decrease than a 12 months in the past, at 565 million kilos. Weak point was dispersed throughout most main international markets within the Western Hemisphere: Mexico (-2 %), Canada (-6 %), and Colombia (-9 %); Asia: Japan (-19 %) and South Korea (-14 %); and Australia (-12 %). Shipments to China and Hong Kong, Honduras, and Guatemala have been year-over-year larger.

Germany declared freed from FMD

Germany has been licensed as freed from foot-and-mouth illness (FMD) by the World Group for Animal Well being, the nation’s ag ministry stated. The standing of being freed from the illness had been reinstated for many of Germany besides the containment zone in mid-March.

China’s meat imports rise in March

China imported 550,000 MT of meat throughout March, up 14.2% from February. By the primary three months of this 12 months, China imported 1.65 MMT of meat, down 2.0% from the identical interval final 12 months.

The subsequent week’s possible high-low worth buying and selling ranges:

June lean hog futures–$95.00 to $101.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

July soybean meal futures–$300.00 to $310.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

July corn futures–$4.85 to $5.05 and a sideways-higher bias

Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures