Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff studies on international pig information
5 July 2025
5 minute learn
August lean hog futures costs have backed properly down from the June excessive, to start to counsel a market high is in place. Money hog and beef market fundamentals seem to have topped seasonally. The most recent CME lean hog index is down 77 cents to $110.99 as of June 30. Pork cutout has proven weak spot lately as properly, falling one other $3.07 to $112.30 on Tuesday, led by weak spot in butts, bellies and ribs. Cutout is now $10.81 under the June 24 peak. Final week’s USDA Hogs & Pigs Report favored the bearish camp. Additionally, the lean hog futures market seems to have topped proper across the annual low in hog slaughter.
Turkey shuts livestock markets nationwide amid FMD outbreak
Turkey has briefly closed all livestock markets throughout the nation to halt the unfold of a extremely contagious new serotype of foot and mouth illness (FMD), the ag ministry introduced. The outbreak intensified following Eid al-Adha, when the normal slaughter of animals elevated livestock motion and heightened transmission dangers. Authorities are deploying vaccination groups nationwide and pledged to steadily raise restrictions as soon as your complete livestock inhabitants is immunized towards the brand new FMD pressure. Officers emphasised the momentary closures won’t disrupt meat or dairy provides and are essential to safeguard animal well being and shield the agricultural sector.
US Supreme Court docket declines to listen to a problem from Iowa Pork Producers Affiliation looking for to overturn California’s Proposition 12
The Court docket’s motion successfully permits the regulation’s animal welfare requirements for pork bought in California to stay in place. The Court docket didn’t present a proof for its determination, although Justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated he would have granted evaluate.
Proposition 12, handed by California voters in 2018, prohibits the sale of raw pork within the state except the animals have been raised in accordance with particular animal welfare necessities, no matter the place they’re produced. Pork producers and several other states have argued that the regulation locations an unfair burden on out-of-state producers and violates the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Structure. The Supreme Court docket beforehand upheld the regulation in a 2023 determination, ruling it didn’t violate the Commerce Clause, and this newest denial of certiorari leaves that ruling in place.
This marks the nineteenth consecutive federal court docket defeat for pork producers and their allies in challenges to Proposition 12 and related state animal welfare legal guidelines. The Supreme Court docket’s motion ensures that the Ninth Circuit’s determination upholding Proposition 12 stays binding.
Australia’s livestock business drops 2030 carbon impartial goal
Purple meat sector cites unrealistic timetable regardless of main emissions reductions and over $66 million in sustainability investments
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has formally deserted its formidable goal of constructing the nation’s livestock sector carbon impartial by 2030, with Managing Director Michael Crowley acknowledging the aim is at present out of attain.
“We want extra time, extra assist, and extra funding to satisfy our aim,” Crowley stated, because the Australian Purple Meat Advisory Council shelved the business’s 2030 goal final week.
Whereas Australia’s crimson meat business reported a 78% discount in emissions from 2005 to 2021, this progress primarily mirrored lowered land clearing and a smaller nationwide herd, not important decreases in methane emissions per animal. Crowley added that current evaluation exhibits the sector might nonetheless attain 80% to 90% of its carbon neutrality goal by 2030, however stronger adoption of emissions-reducing practices is required. The business has invested over A$100 million (about $66 million USD) in sustainability efforts geared toward supporting the aim.
US hog and pig stock totaled 75.1 million head as of June 1, 2025
That’s in accordance with the USDA’s newest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, marking a slight year-over-year improve and a 1% rise from the March tally.
Key findings:
- Of the overall stock, 69.2 million have been market hogs and 5.98 million have been saved for breeding.
- Between March and Could, 34.2 million pigs have been weaned — up 1% from the identical interval final yr — with a median of 11.75 pigs per litter.
- Producers intend to farrow 2.97 million sows from June to August and a couple of.95 million sows from September to November.
- Iowa leads all states with 24.7 million head, adopted by Minnesota (9.30 million) and North Carolina (7.80 million).
- The report is primarily based on surveys from 4,476 operations nationwide, collected by a combination of on-line, mail, telephone, and in-person responses.
The report alerts continued stability within the U.S. swine sector, with producers sustaining regular manufacturing plans for the approaching quarters.
USDA makes minor revisions to 2025 meals value outlook
Grocery value will increase edge up, restaurant value rises ease barely
USDA’s newest Meals Value Outlook launched June 25 initiatives solely modest adjustments to its 2025 meals inflation forecast, with the general message that customers will maintain going through greater meals prices — each on the grocery retailer and when eating out.
Class Highlights and Modifications:
- Beef: Costs are projected to leap 6.8% from 2024 — up from the 6.6% improve forecast in Could — pushed by record-high retail costs, continued sturdy demand, and tight provides. Beef value will increase have outpaced different meals classes up to now in 2025.
- Eggs: Whereas the projected rise in egg costs has been trimmed to 33.2% (down from Could’s 39.2% forecast), costs stay sharply elevated, primarily because of ongoing impacts from extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Regardless of current declines, Could egg costs have been nonetheless 41.5% above Could 2024.
- Different meat & poultry: Pork costs are actually anticipated to rise 0.5% (a reversal from the earlier outlook of a decline), whereas poultry costs are set to improve 2.3% (up barely from Could’s 2.1%).
- Fat & oils, fruits & greens: USDA now expects extra modest value declines in these classes, softening from steeper drops forecast in Could. Fat and oils are anticipated to fall 0.6%, and contemporary vegetable costs are actually forecast to say no 2.5%.
The following week’s seemingly high-low value buying and selling ranges:
August lean hog futures–$105.00 to $110.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
September soybean meal futures–$265.00 to $285.00, and with a sideways bias
December corn futures–$4.10 to $4.30 and a sideways-lower bias
Newest analytical day by day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
