The worldwide provide of pigmeat is projected to rise steadily within the subsequent decade, led by development in Asia, in line with the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.
The quantity of pigmeat produced the world over is predicted to develop from 124 million tonnes (Mt) carcase weight equal (cwe) within the base interval (2022-2024) to 130 Mt cwe by 2034, equal to an annual development fee of 0.4%.
Over the following decade, total international meat manufacturing is forecast to rise by 13% to 406Mt by 2034, with pigmeat account for round 13% of the full enhance by 2034, in line with AHDB senior analyst Soumya Behera.
Asia
With growing international locations fuelling development, the OECD-FAO outlook highlights that meat manufacturing in Asia will contribute 55% of the full international development and a giant proportion of the rise in pig manufacturing, with south-east Asia anticipated to see fast development in international locations corresponding to Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand – assuming that restoration from ASF will happen throughout the area.
Nonetheless, China, the world’s largest shopper of pig meat, is forecast to see pig meat manufacturing stay steady at present volumes, as a stagnating economic system and market consolidation weighs on the trade.
Latin America
Latin America contributes 15% of worldwide livestock manufacturing. The OED-FAO outlook predicts development of 1.3% every year in pig meat manufacturing by 2034. All international locations within the area are forecast optimistic development through the interval. Brazil, the most important producer of pig meat within the area, is anticipated to develop 0.7% by 2034, with decrease feed and labour prices retaining its pigmeat aggressive on the worldwide market, Ms Behera added.
Europe
General, developed areas are more likely to witness marginal development of 0.1% in pig meat manufacturing. Nonetheless, the EU it’s anticipated to say no by 0.3% p.a. over the following decade attributable to fewer breeding sows, illness, environmental regulation and altering diets.
In the meantime, the UK is forecast to see a manufacturing development of 0.4% by 2034, as greater carcase weights and optimistic farm margins incentivise additional funding, though this might be undermined by challenges corresponding to labour shortages, Ms Behera added.
North America
The intensive nature of manufacturing programs in North America means the area provides 13% of the worldwide worth of livestock manufacturing. Nonetheless, feed is a serious price driver and better pricing for uncooked supplies over latest years has pressured profitability, however productiveness beneficial properties are outpacing stock enlargement.
OECD-FAO forecasts development in pig meat of simply 0.3% and 0.4% respectively within the US and Canada over the following decade with commerce surplus easing by the identical quantity. Uncertainties attributable to elevated tariff charges will seemingly negatively affect commerce flows and will affect manufacturing confidence, Ms Behera added.
