The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) hovered between 38 and 58 in 2024 after which rose sharply to 70 within the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 earlier than declining to 65 in Q2 and 63 in Q3.
Photograph: FW Archive
Nevertheless, regardless of the drop, Dawie Maree, head of agriculture advertising and marketing and data at FNB, stated sentiment remained stronger than it was from 2022 to 2024, supported by political stability following the formation of the Authorities of Nationwide Unity, improved service supply at ports, over 100 days with out load-shedding, decrease rates of interest, and beneficial rainfall.
He attributed the ACI’s current dip largely to uncertainty over foot-and-mouth illness (FMD) and new US commerce tariffs, although each points had been anticipated to ease because the FMD vaccine rollout progressed and the influence of tariffs grew to become clearer.
“The US tariff is an issue, however it’s not as huge as initially feared, with producers already taking steps to handle it,” Maree added.
Of the ten subindices that made up ACI, 5 declined in Q3, whereas the remaining 5 improved mildly.
The market share index dropped six factors from the earlier quarter to 59, whereas the employment subindex fell by 5 factors to 50, mirroring the three% decline in farm jobs to 906 000 in Q2.
Capital funding confidence decreased by eight factors to 67, regardless of high-frequency knowledge similar to tractor and mix harvester gross sales remaining robust for the reason that begin of the yr.
The subindex measuring export volumes fell by 17 factors to 43, reflecting ongoing considerations over US tariffs and the worldwide commerce setting. Nevertheless, laborious knowledge painted a extra optimistic image, with exports growing by 10% year-on-year to succeed in US$3,71 billion (round R70 billion) in Q2, based on Agbiz.
Normal agricultural circumstances additionally weakened, falling 13 factors to 67 as animal well being points continued. Nonetheless, this was nonetheless a beneficial stage due to robust summer season rainfall within the 2024/25 season and wonderful winter rainfall for 2025/26 crops.
In distinction, turnover confidence jumped 20 factors to 75, whereas web working revenue rose by six factors to 71.
Financing value sentiment improved, with this subindex dropping by 14 factors to 71, reflecting easing rates of interest. Debtor provision for dangerous debt remained regular at 50 factors.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, stated the findings instructed that the agriculture sector’s restoration can be uneven in 2025, with livestock producers specifically going through stress.
He added that the emphasis on geopolitical points within the survey highlighted South Africa’s reliance on export markets and the necessity for diversification.
“BRICS nations, significantly China, India and Saudi Arabia, provide main alternatives, however we should additionally preserve robust hyperlinks with present markets within the EU, UK, Africa, Asia, Center East and Americas,” he informed Farmer’s Weekly.
Sihlobo additionally emphasised that stronger partnerships between enterprise and authorities had been important for the sector’s long-term development, significantly in tackling biosecurity dangers, enhancing municipal administration, and allocating state land to the suitable beneficiaries.
