Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on world pig information
7 September 2025
4 minute learn
The lean hog futures market at mid-week noticed routine revenue taking from the speculators after costs Tuesday hit a nine-week excessive. Money hog market fundamentals are weakening a bit late this summer season, however the technical posture for October lean hogs stays firmly bullish. The most recent CME lean hog index (Aug. 29) is down 25 cents to $105.92. Thursday’s projected CME money index value (for Sept. 2) is unchanged at $105.92. Wednesday’s nationwide direct 5-day rolling common money hog value quote is $105.75.
Newest USDA and different information relating to the worldwide pork business
Meat costs buck seasonal traits after Labor Day
Provide cuts drive beef and pork costs larger regardless of regular demand slowdown
Meat costs are shifting otherwise than ordinary because the summer season grilling season winds down, in accordance with Southern Ag At present (SAT). The report famous that “much less manufacturing mixed with good meat demand is actually pressuring costs larger,” with provide constraints now outweighing the conventional seasonal dip that follows Labor Day.
Pork: Decrease manufacturing trumps seasonality. Wholesale pork costs normally peak in summer season and taper off within the fall, however this 12 months manufacturing stays beneath final 12 months. SAT wrote, “It appears to be like like extra pigs per litter don’t make up for fewer sows.” All pork primals are operating above 2024 ranges. Loins and butts are easing seasonally, however ribs, bellies, and hams have surged, underscoring pork’s volatility.
Outlook. With beef and pork each displaying supply-driven power, SAT mentioned it would flip subsequent to poultry, particularly as Thanksgiving approaches. For now, the conclusion is evident: “tighter provides are going to outweigh seasonal patterns this Fall.”
US EPA Imposes No Further Wastewater Discharge Regs on Meat & Poultry Processing Amenities
In Sleepy Eye, Minnesota, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin introduced the company’s closing choice: no further wastewater discharge rules shall be imposed on meat and poultry processing services. This transfer, a part of the administration’s Powering the Nice American Comeback initiative, is positioned as a measure to scale back shopper costs and alleviate burdens on American farmers—citing potential financial savings within the billions. Zeldin emphasised that the motion would defend each human well being and the atmosphere. Hyperlink to EPA announcement.
Robust ag business and political assist:
Help from agriculture leaders. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins applauded the rollback, saying it protects small and mid-sized processors from “expensive and burdensome” pink tape that would have compelled closures. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall added that heavy-handed rules would have “in the end harm the farmers elevating the meat and poultry we take pleasure in.”
Ag business response
- Meat Institute CEO Julie Anna Potts: “This necessary choice ends a regulatory catastrophe that will have compelled services to shut, inflicting meals costs to go up.”
- Nationwide Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler: “EPA’s motion at present will save almost 100 native meat processors and the hundreds of household farmers who depend on them.”
- NCBA President Buck Wehrbein: Stated the rollback helps small and regional meat processors who had been already battling resource-intensive requirements.
- Nationwide Rooster Council’s Ashley Peterson: Praised EPA for recognizing current oversight whereas faulting the prior administration for a rushed rulemaking course of.
- U.S. Poultry & Egg Affiliation’s Nath Morris: Welcomed EPA’s dedication to correctly consider future rules.
- Nationwide Turkey Federation CEO Leslee Oden: Referred to as the transfer proof that “present Clear Water Act preparations are working for turkey processors, the atmosphere, and native communities.”
Opposition: Environmental & public well being issues. Environmental organizations and attorneys basic voiced sharp criticism of the rollback:
- Forty-five environmental, group, and animal welfare teams — together with Earthjustice, Environmental Integrity Mission, Meals & Water Watch, Heart for Organic Range, and Waterkeepers — warned that the EPA’s choice neglects “fashionable air pollution controls” and fails to guard below resourced communities going through disproportionate hurt from nutrient air pollution (nitrogen and phosphorus). They urged stricter requirements. “Slaughterhouses have spent many years polluting our nation’s waters with abandon… EPA should seize this chance to rein on this soiled business by enacting essentially the most environmentally protecting regulatory possibility with out additional delay.” – Meals & Water Watch
- Earthjustice and the Environmental Integrity Mission filed lawsuits, arguing that the choice to chorus from updating outdated requirements permits meat and poultry crops to proceed polluting waterways unchecked.
- A coalition of state attorneys basic, led by California’s Rob Bonta, expressed assist for the initially proposed rule. They urged the EPA to undertake the strongest possibility supplied and supply federal help to assist services comply — and warned that weak requirements hurt environmental justice communities.
USDA reviews on Mexico livestock business
The Mexican pig crop is forecast to extend to 21.1 million head in 2026, a 2% enhance. A major issue for the rise is investments in improved genetics and biosecurity lately. Slaughter and pork manufacturing are forecast to rise to 19.0 million head and 1.5 MMT CWE, respectively. Rising family and industrial demand are key contributors to elevated slaughter and pork manufacturing.
Consumption is projected to rise 4% to 2.8 MMT CWE, whereas imports are anticipated to extend to1.6 MMT CWE, a rise of three %. In the meantime, exports are forecast at 210,000 MT CWE, a decline of three%, as a result of misplaced market share to opponents in Asia.
The following week’s probably high-low value buying and selling ranges:
October lean hog futures–$92.00 to $97.05 and with a sideways bias
December soybean meal futures–$272.60 to $295.00, and with a sideways-lower bias
December corn futures–$4.03 1/2 to $4.24 1/4 and a sideways bias
Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
