Above all, we should spotlight that there have been no additional instances of foot and mouth illness in Germany. Seven weeks have already elapsed for the reason that outbreak close to Berlin and no new instances have been reported. This absence of recent developments is, in itself, the absolute best information. The issue, and its penalties, look like largely confined to Germany. If there aren’t any new instances (fingers crossed), normality shall be restored inside just a few months. The German authorities are enjoyable the sanitary safety measures and a way of expectant calm is regularly returning. This normality could be very mandatory for the complete swine business within the EU as an entire. If issues proceed this manner, it’s anticipated that Germany will regain entry to exports to some third nations earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
February is ending with a clear upward development within the Spanish worth; the Spanish citation appears to comply with the trail of an arrow, upwards and upwards… To this point this 12 months, the typical carcass weights are nonetheless very excessive, an absolute file in comparison with the identical weeks of earlier years. We must always in all probability get used to the truth that this circumstance is recurrent: little by little, the vary of carcass weights has been altering and it appears the brand new state of affairs is irreversible. We reiterate right here that such heavy carcass weights (as in January, for instance) produce items which can be too giant, exterior the industrial vary. We’ve got skilled a February with the worth persistently growing each week, in distinction to the cussed worth stability in Central European nations, pressured by the German state of affairs. To complete portray the image, we should remark that the pork commerce is sluggish and the (undesirable) shares are growing.
On the time of penning this textual content, the Spanish and German costs (in response to Mercolleida, for equal qualities) are removed from one another: 1.63 is the official Spanish worth and 1.34 is its German equal. Germany suffers the penalty for the foot and mouth illness detected in January (it has misplaced virtually all choices to export to 3rd nations) along with the presence of ASF, which continues to hinder its industrial alternatives. In Spain, the dearth of provide for the prevailing slaughter capability continues and persists. Proper now, this overcapacity of slaughter appears systemic to us.
Germany maintains its standing because the main market in Central Europe: its neighboring nations’ quotations intently comply with Germany’s. Between Germany and its neighbors (Netherlands, Belgium, …) there are common and frequent crucial exchanges (which makes all these markets behave as linked by nearly excellent speaking vessels) each in dwell animals and in pork.
Germany and its satellites are all quoting inside a slender vary; a number of integers beneath the Spanish citation. At current, the North-South divide within the EU is extra evident than ever and is turning into a disparity that’s strengthening and turning into persistent.
Twenty-nine cents distinction per kilogram dwell equals 38 cents per kilogram carcass. Fairly the distinction. Spain’s worth appears to be perched on an ivory column, far forward of the remainder of the EU quotations. This important distinction can solely be momentary, however, so long as it lasts, Spanish slaughterhouses will discover it tough (unattainable?) to acquire optimistic working margins. That is an indisputable fact. The German worth is anticipated to rebound as the nice climate approaches.
Within the world state of affairs, we should level out that each the United States and Brazil are seeing very excessive costs for this time of the 12 months: In Brazil, the market is following good export rhythms and in the US there’s undoubtedly a discount in herd dimension (circumstantial, for certain). The excessive costs of our principal rivals on the worldwide scene can solely be in our favor.
Right here we wish to point out the extraordinary energy of pig manufacturing in Russia. Let’s check out some figures:
| 12 months | Pork produced, tons |
|---|---|
| 2001 | 1 515 000 |
| 2011 | 2 347 000 |
| 2021 | 4 024 000 |
| 2024 | 5 870 000 |
Supply: 333 Pig manufacturing information
Plain and easy, a 387% improve in 23 years (!). Manufacturing in 2024 is equal to a weekly slaughter of round 1,240,000 animals (1,100,000 presently in Spain). Spain’s large neighbor to the East is presenting its candidacy to be a formidable competitor on the world markets. For the time being it’s competing with Brazil for third place on this planet, relegating Spain, definitively, to fifth place. For now, Russian pork is current in China. Its progress is all of the extra outstanding as a result of it got here from a flat state of affairs: no know-how, no livestock farming tradition, no industrial expertise, and largely out of date gear. We all know that Russia is a significant cereal producer and in addition that, crudely talking, pork is nothing greater than a processed cereal…
To conclude, we wish to point out some remarks from the President of PIMEC (Catalan Small and Medium Enterprises Employers’ Affiliation), Mr. Antoni Cañete: “China produces, the US innovates, and the EU creates requirements…” We absolutely subscribe to those statements: a phrase to the sensible is ample…
Guillem Burset
