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April Lean Hogs opened decrease and traded all the way down to the low of the day at 83.55. The breakdown took worth beneath the declining 200-DMA now at 83.925, stopping simply above assist at 83.325. Value turned larger and rallied to the session excessive at 87.55. It consolidated within the higher finish of the buying and selling vary for the remainder of the session and settled at 86.65. The rally took worth previous resistance on the rising 100-DMA now at 84.675, the important thing degree at 85.325, the 50-DMA now at 86.60 and the important thing degree at 87.10. That’s a powerful feat, particularly with a weak Fairness market that saved a lid on cattle costs in my view. The rally couldn’t hod resistance at 87.10 however was capable of squeak by the 50-DMA. The revolving door of the tariff state of affairs supplied some assist to the market because the President introduced the delay of tariffs on some Mexican merchandise that complies with the USMC commerce settlement, lightening the stress on the Hog market. Money fundamentals stay sturdy, and our exports have been glorious on Thursday’s report with gross sales at 42,400 MT. We might have a robust cutout seasonal as we close to Easter and the summer time grilling season. Beef cutouts are anticipated to go larger and if this happens it might have a optimistic affect on pork costs. Slaughter ranges stay below final yr and this might additionally preserve upward motion in each cutouts and money costs. Futures are beneath the money market as merchants fear about tariffs and the implications it might convey to our exports. However every time(to date) tariffs are introduced they get pushed again into the longer term which might present our buying and selling companions with extra time to entrance load purchases of our pork in case the tariffs lastly stick. This might assist costs within the quick run. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement might see worth take a look at assist at 85.325 after which the 100 and 200-DMAs. Help then is available in at 83.325. If worth can retake resistance at 87.10, we might see a take a look at of resistance at 88.325. The 21-DMA is close by at 88.675. A breakout from right here might see worth strategy resistance at 90.40.
The Pork Cutout Index down ticked and is at 98.60 as of 03/05/2025.
The Lean Hog Index ticked decrease and is at 90.20 as of 03/04/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 485,000, which is beneath final week’s 489,000 and above final yr’s 471,755. The estimated whole for the week (to date) is 1,817,000, which is beneath final week’s 1,958,000 and final yr’s 1,893,135.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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Walsh Buying and selling, Inc.
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