American agricultural exports more likely to be hit
3 March 2025
4 minute learn
China has American agricultural exports in its cross hairs because it prepares countermeasures in opposition to recent US import tariffs, Reuters reported, citing China’s state-backed International Occasions, elevating the stakes in an escalating commerce warfare between the world’s high two economies.
US President Donald Trump final week threatened China with the additional 10% responsibility set to take impact on Tuesday, leading to a cumulative 20% tariff, and accused Beijing of not doing sufficient to halt the stream of fentanyl into America, which China stated was tantamount to “blackmail.”
“China is finding out and formulating related countermeasures in response to the US risk of imposing an extra 10% tariff on Chinese language merchandise below the pretext of fentanyl,” International Occasions reported on Monday, citing an nameless supply.
“The countermeasures will seemingly embody each tariffs and a sequence of non-tariff measures, and US agricultural and meals merchandise will more than likely be listed,” the report added.
China’s commerce ministry and the US embassy in Beijing didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.
China is the largest marketplace for US agricultural merchandise, and the sector has lengthy been weak to getting used as a punching bag in occasions of commerce tensions.
“Regardless of a decline in imports since 2018, any tariffs on key US agricultural merchandise like soybeans, meat and grains may have a major affect on US-China commerce in addition to US exporters and farmers,” stated Genevieve Donnellon-Could, a researcher on the Oxford International Society.
“The US agricultural sector has had time to organize for a second Trump administration and commerce warfare 2.0, with classes discovered from the primary Trump administration,” she added.
“So, in idea, it must be in a greater place to seek out different markets. Nevertheless, the fact could show much more advanced.”
China’s most lively soymeal and rapeseed meal futures, already underpinned by a provide scarcity, every surged 2.5% after the International Occasions report. The soymeal contract on the Dalian Commodities Trade hit its highest since Sept 30, 2024.
The world’s high agricultural importer and second-largest economic system introduced in $29.25 billion price of US agriculture merchandise in 2024, a 14% drop from a yr earlier, extending a 20% decline seen in 2023.
International Occasions, which is owned by the newspaper of the governing Communist Occasion, Individuals’s Day by day, was first to report the steps China deliberate to soak up response to the European Union slapping tariffs on Chinese language electrical autos final yr.
Trump’s announcement left Beijing with lower than per week to provide you with countermeasures or strike a deal. The proposed further levies additionally coincide with the begin to China’s annual assembly of parliament, a political set piece occasion at which Beijing is predicted to roll out its 2025 financial priorities.
Trump tariffs to ‘backfire’
Analysts say Beijing nonetheless hopes to barter a truce with the Trump administration, however with no indicators of any commerce talks but the prospect of a rapprochement between the 2 financial giants is fading.
“A China-US commerce warfare isn’t inevitable, however Trump’s resolution to impose tariffs now could be a foul resolution,” stated Wang Dong, government director of the Institute for International Cooperation and Understanding at Peking College.
“Trump and his advisors might imagine that imposing tariffs right now is to place stress on China, sending a sign, however it will backfire and China will inevitably reply strongly.”
Tit-for-tat tariffs between the 2 international locations throughout Trump’s first time period set off a full-blown commerce warfare, upending monetary markets and hurting international progress.
This time round, Trump’s first salvo of fentanyl-related import duties on Feb. 4 was met by a fast retaliatory transfer by Beijing.
China introduced a sequence of broad ranging countermeasures concentrating on US companies together with Google and the proprietor of vogue model Calvin Klein, and recent import duties on US coal, oil and a few autos.
China’s commerce ministry stated on Friday that it hoped to return to negotiations with the US as quickly as doable, warning that failure to take action may set off retaliation.
State media stated high Chinese language Communist Occasion officers met the identical day and vowed to take steps to stop any exterior shocks to China’s economic system.
The Politburo assembly comes per week after the White Home launched an America First funding memorandum which positioned China on a listing of “overseas adversaries.”
