EU pigmeat manufacturing is forecast to be broadly secure in 2025, following two years of development.
Following a 2% enhance in EU pigmeat manufacturing in 2023, final 12 months noticed a 2.3% enhance, pushed largely by Spain (+6%), Germany (+4%), Denmark (+4%) and Poland (+3%). The rise was a results of each larger slaughter pig numbers and a 1.8% enhance in carcase weight.
The primary quarter of this 12 months noticed larger pigmeat manufacturing on the again of extra pigs coming ahead and better carcase weights.
Nonetheless, based on the European Fee’s short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2025, given the three% decline in breeding sows recorded within the December 2024 livestock survey, it’s forecasting that EU pigmeat manufacturing might see a decline within the second half of 2025. That is predicted to result in a comparatively small 0.4% total decline in manufacturing through the 12 months.
The doc stresses, nevertheless, that African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks stay a danger for manufacturing.
Pig value
The EU weighted common pigmeat value has began to extend once more from February this 12 months. Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless barely beneath final 12 months’s stage, however above the 5-year common, though with barely decrease feed costs, margins stay constructive.
“The climbing costs might sign that the EU pigmeat demand is robust, particularly as a result of pigmeat is presently the most affordable meat,” the outlook doc states.
Following an uplift in pigmeat consumption final 12 months (+2.4%), the consumption is forecast to stay secure in 2025 at 31.7kg/capita.
EU pigmeat costs presently stay considerably larger in comparison with key rivals, reminiscent of Brazil, the US and Canada, limiting export alternatives.
EU exports
After 4 years of decline, EU exports had been comparatively secure over the primary 4 months of the 12 months, though shipments to the UK declined by 6%, alongside a 19% decline to Japan and a 9.5% drop to the US.
Nonetheless, pork exports doubled to Vietnam, because it struggles with ASF, due primarily to a major enhance in pork lard, with shipments to China up +3.8%.
Nonetheless, with growing manufacturing forecasts in China and the UK for 2025, EU exports are estimated to say no by 3% in 2025, if the value hole between EU and worldwide rivals stays secure.
The paperwork notes that motion ensuing from China’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation into EU pigmeat, now prolonged till December 2025, might additional hit exports, whereas doable US tariffs might ‘create each alternatives and dangers for EU exports’.
EU imports declined by nearly 8% over the primary three months of the 12 months, primarily due to declining exports from Chile and Switzerland to the EU.
However UK pigmeat exports to the EU, which account for about 70% of complete EU pigmeat imports, have elevated to date this 12 months, resulting in a marginal 1% enhance within the EU imports forecast for 2025.
Nonetheless, EU imports are forecast to say no once more in 2026.
Beef market
The meat market, together with hig costs within the UK and EU, continues to be a significant factor within the comparatively wholesome state of the UK pig market.
The fee doc states that elevated cattle costs have inspired EU beef carcase weights up in Q1 2025, resulting in a 2% annual enhance in carcase weight for this era.
Nonetheless, early 12 months manufacturing declines in main beef producing states, France, Spain and Germany, have offset slight will increase in Eire, Italy and Poland.
Whole 2025 EU web beef manufacturing (from complete cattle slaughter within the EU excluding the stability of commerce) is forecast to be 1.3% decrease than 2024 ranges at 6.73 million tonnes, pushed primarily by the shrinking breeding herd, AHDB’s report on the doc notes.
Beef consumption in Europe is predicted to stay regular regardless of larger costs with per capita consumption estimated at 9.9kg, 0.9% down year-on-year.
