September felt like an extended, deep breath on the German pig market, a quiet pause between the top of summer season and the start of autumn. Initially of the month, producers held their line. The citation stood at 1.95 €, and the market appeared remarkably calm. Solely regularly did sentiment start to shift. As retail demand for meat weakened and the barbecue season got here to a transparent finish, the market misplaced its momentum. By mid-month, the official reference worth had slipped to 1.85 €, the place it remained after this noticeable correction. This mirrored the scenario in farms and slaughterhouses, the place animals had been moved easily however demand failed to realize traction. Within the second half of September, the worth experiences confirmed a muted general scenario at 1.85 €.
The tone within the piglet market shifted in parallel. Firstly of the month, situations had been nonetheless balanced, with the 25-kilogram commonplace round 61.50 €. However as finishers turned extra cautious, costs began to fall. First to 59.00 €, and by the top of the month to 54.00 €. The clear decline mirrored how sensitively the upstream market reacted to the sluggish meat commerce.
For sows, the market remained largely regular earlier than softening barely. After beginning at 1.05 €, the official citation dropped to 1.00 € by mid-September. The accessible provide was totally marketable, however sellers continued to attend for stronger demand from the processing phase.
Political and structural developments shaped a quiet however fixed background
In Hesse, the ASF-protection-fence arrange the earlier 12 months within the Pfungstädter Moor was dismantled in September. It was solely a small step in managing the illness however symbolized a return to extra regular operations in a area that needed to stay significantly vigilant for a while.
A far louder sign got here from China. Beginning on 10 September, Beijing launched a deposit tariff on European pork. Charges differ extensively between firms and might exceed thirty p.c, whereas corporations with out a person price should pay even greater deposits. The measure impacts an already diminished export movement and is considered inside the business as a response to European tariffs on automobiles. Germany stays excluded from direct commerce with China attributable to African Swine Fever, however the repercussions are felt all through Europe, dampening confidence and placing strain on sentiment.
Observers famous rising pressure inside the European Union as September progressed. Competitors between member states intensified, and consumers’ restraint was talked about extra incessantly. The general public vacation within the ultimate week, which diminished slaughter capability, did nothing to enhance the temper.
On a global degree, the month mirrored a part during which world political actions and European manufacturing paths turned extra intently intertwined.
In line with ISN forecasts, EU pork manufacturing is more likely to decline additional, as sow inventories have already decreased in livestock surveys. For Germany, 2025 nonetheless factors to secure slaughter numbers however fewer imported stay animals. This means a average provide scenario and potential assist as soon as demand picks up once more.
What does all this imply for the outlook within the coming weeks?
First, the present weak spot in piglet costs is unlikely to final as soon as finishers resume placements with extra confidence and the meat commerce widens its product vary for autumn. Restricted sow herds and the prospect of decrease EU manufacturing assist this view.
Second, the German slaughter pig market stays delicate to client sentiment. Stronger demand for cuts or sausages as temperatures fall might shortly create bottlenecks. That will deliver the specified demand impulse, however the present European surplus is ready to fill any gaps.
Third, the worldwide commerce scenario stays an uncertainty and, for now, extra of a brake than a lift. China’s advance tariffs are hitting Europe laborious and shifting vital volumes inside the inner market. The extra pork weighs on costs and will increase competitors amongst processors. Although Germany itself is just not immediately concerned in exports to China, the market feels the implications by way of falling revenues and rising provide strain. Home demand stays regular however is just not sturdy sufficient to soak up the collected volumes. Because of this, autumn is unlikely to deliver a lot reduction. Within the quick time period, full chilly shops and ample EU provide level to additional troublesome weeks with persevering with worth strain earlier than any restoration can take maintain.
In brief: September introduced falling pig costs to 1.85 €, declining piglet costs, and noticeably extra cautious demand. Throughout Europe, the massive quantity of pork continues to weigh available on the market and limits any worth optimism. Whereas Germany’s restricted stay provide gives some longer-term assist, the short-term image stays troublesome. Slaughter firms are working in a extremely aggressive surroundings, and gross sales are sluggish in lots of areas. The approaching weeks will present whether or not retail demand can generate sufficient momentum to ease the strain. In any other case, each producers and merchants might face one other spherical of difficult weeks. For now, it additionally appears unlikely that China will withdraw its tariffs, as the federal government in Beijing is presently targeted on lowering its personal home oversupply.
