If you need to obtain extra info on the commodity markets, please use the hyperlink to affix our electronic mail record – Signal Up Now
For these I maintain a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my subsequent webinar can be Tuesday, November 12, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It’s free for anybody who needs to enroll and the hyperlink for enroll is beneath. In the event you can’t attend stay a recording can be despatched to your electronic mail upon completion of the webinar.
February Lean Hogs
February Lean Hogs opened increased earlier than retreating to the session low at 83.925. Nevertheless, a robust morning cutout gave bulls the higher hand, driving the worth to a excessive of 86.25. Regardless of this, uncertainty returned, and costs consolidated, in the end settling at 85.60. Decrease-than-expected slaughter numbers proceed to help money markets. The decline in indices has stalled and begun to rebound, ending the week on a stronger footing.
Weights stay constant, and shopper demand seems to be enhancing, probably on account of retailers anticipating higher vacation gross sales as beef costs stay excessive. The decrease slaughter numbers can also recommend that the USDA’s hog provide evaluation was inaccurate, probably indicating a scarcity as we method year-end.
The upcoming Hogs and Pigs report on December twenty third will make clear revisions to heavier weight courses. If the pattern of diminished slaughter persists, hog costs may acquire momentum in January, favoring lengthy positions.
Technical Ranges:
- Help: 85.325, 21-DMA at 85.275, 83.325
- Resistance: 86.50 (13-DMA), 87.10, 200-DMA at 87.375, 88.325
Indices and Slaughter:
- Pork Cutout Index: 92.66 (12/12/2024)
- Lean Hog Index: 83.92 (12/11/2024)
- Estimated Weekly Slaughter: 2,573,000 (down from 2,602,000 final week).
January Feeder Cattle
January Feeder Cattle opened decrease however rallied to a excessive of 259.025 earlier than declining to a low of 256.35. Though the Dwell Cattle market supplied some help, feeders settled decrease at 257.65.
The early decline might be attributed to the USDA’s announcement about resuming Mexican cattle imports, initially deliberate earlier than year-end however now pushed to the brand new 12 months. Efforts to eradicate screwworm with sterile fly manufacturing in Central America are ongoing, with manufacturing elevated to 95 million flies from 20 million final 12 months.
Technical Ranges:
- Resistance: 258.925 (trendline), 261.05
- Help: 257.60 (13-DMA), 257.00 (8-DMA)
Feeder Cattle Index: 262.59 (12/12/2024)
February Dwell Cattle
February Dwell Cattle began the day decrease however rebounded mid-morning from a low of 190.375, reaching a excessive of 192.25 earlier than settling at a brand new all-time excessive of 192.025.
Robust boxed beef cutouts and shopper demand for alternative cuts are driving costs increased. Regardless of decrease slaughter numbers, packers stay aggressive in money markets, possible on account of provide shortages. The Cattle on Feed report on Friday may affect market route.
Technical Ranges:
- Resistance: 192.70 (new excessive), 193.50
Boxed Beef Cutouts (12/12/2024):
- Alternative: 316.39 (+1.15)
- Choose: 283.86 (+3.38)
- Alternative/Choose Unfold: 32.53
Estimated Weekly Slaughter: 609,000 (down from 614,000 final week).
USDA LM_Ct131 Report:
Negotiated money buying and selling stays gentle within the Southern Plains, with stay FOB purchases at 191.00–192.00 in Texas. In Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, buying and selling was restricted, with the final reported costs at 195.00–196.00 (stay FOB) and 305 (dressed).
Name me for a free session for a advertising plan relating to your livestock wants.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Buying and selling, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
[email protected]
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Buying and selling, Inc. is registered as a Assured Introducing Dealer with the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee and an NFA Member. Futures and choices buying and selling includes substantial danger and isn’t appropriate for all buyers. Due to this fact, people ought to rigorously think about their monetary situation in deciding whether or not to commerce. Choice merchants ought to be conscious that the train of an extended choice will end in a futures place. The valuation of futures and choices might fluctuate, and consequently, purchasers might lose greater than their authentic funding. The data contained on this website is the opinion of the author or was obtained from sources cited throughout the commentary. The impression on market costs on account of seasonal or market cycles and present information occasions might already be mirrored in market costs. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All info, communications, publications, and reviews, together with this particular materials, used and distributed by Walsh Buying and selling, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for coming into right into a derivatives transaction. WTI doesn’t distribute analysis reviews, make use of analysis analysts, or preserve a analysis division as outlined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
