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August Lean Hogs hole opened greater and made the excessive of the day at 106.60. The market turned decrease, closed the hole and broke all the way down to the low at 105.575. It modified course once more and made its manner in the direction of the excessive and settled close to the excessive at 106.475. The early excessive approached resistance at 106.85 and the breakdown to the low neared help on the 8 and 50-DMAs now at 105.35 and 105.325 respectively. The restoration in hogs took value again above the 13-DMA now at 106.00. The session shaped a dangling man candlestick and is engaged on a flag sample which may very well be a bearish indication for hogs, for my part. The hanging man candle comes on the high of the latest up transfer within the August contract. The money market has stabilized and is grinding greater. August is now under the money index. The cutout has fought again and is shifting greater. Exports are weak. Slaughter ought to enhance going ahead as we transfer in the direction of a seasonal enhance in manufacturing. We’re in the summertime doldrums and the money market has turned greater. We’ve got the potential for commerce offers that would ignite demand. We’ve got the potential for commerce offers to fall via and better tariffs on our buying and selling companions. This might soften demand. There’s lots of contradictory forces in place proper now, for my part. The optimistic information is with all these forces in play; we now have seen the cutout and money market stabilize. This bodes nicely for bullish merchants if the damaging candle is neutralized on Monday. We’ll see!… If Hogs can maintain settlement, it might take a look at resistance at 106.85. Resistance then is available in at 107.925. A failure from the 50-DMA might see value take a look at help on the 104.35. Assist then is available in at 101.975.
The Pork Cutout Index elevated and is at 114.52 as of 07/17/2025.
The Lean Hog Index elevated and is at 107.63 as of 07/16/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 463,000, which is above final week’s 423,000 and final yr’s 423,255. Saturday slaughter is anticipated to be 9,000, which is under final week’s 39,000 and final yr’s 42,209. The estimated whole for the week is 2,342,000, which is under final week’s 2,353,000 and final yr’s 2,393,523.
August Feeder Cattle opened decrease and traded as much as the excessive at 325.90. The rally saved value within the higher finish of its latest buying and selling vary, threatening to take out the latest all-time excessive at 326.875. Value reversed course as rumors of the New World Screwworm made its manner into the market. This despatched Feeders right into a tailspin, taking value to the low at 321.00. The breakdown examined help at 321.00 and it held as merchants calmed down after digesting the rumor. Little info has come out concerning the rumor aside from a buyer telling me he heard the screwworm was present in an Eagles beak?? Sketchy! The breakdown on the brand new is a knee-jerk response to a damaging information story. In my view, the results of an precise infestation could be bullish on high of the bullish provide scenario already in place. If this case progresses, we might see even decrease cattle provide sooner or later, relying on the severity of the development of the fly’s infestation and of our skill/ incapacity to mitigate its results. The rumor apart, value continued its consolidation at all-time highs. Value is buying and selling inside the all-time excessive value of 326.875 and the latest low at 318.65, established on the identical day it made the all-time excessive. The Feeder Index is working its manner again to the all-time excessive (323.37) and futures are barely over the index. There was a reluctance to maintain futures over the index as we now have rallied to the latest all-time highs. For futures to proceed working greater we, for my part have to see the money index take out its latest excessive. Merchants are nervous up right here as we’re at lofty ranges. Therefore, the consolidation as merchants await optimistic money information. It’s fascinating the index isn’t surging as you retain seeing information experiences of feeder weight cattle persevering with to make new data in any respect weight lessons. Who’s promoting cattle at decrease costs to maintain the index in test? And why? We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement might see value re-test help at 321.00. Assist then is available in at 319.45. If settlement holds, value might take a look at resistance pivot resistance at 325.975. The all-time excessive is subsequent at 326.875. R2 is at 328.40 and R3 is at 330.875.
The Feeder Cattle Index ticked greater and is at 322.28 as of 07/17/2025.
August Dwell Cattle opened greater, traded to an early low after which raced to a different new all-time excessive for the lead contract at 224.55. The rumor mill took value decrease to the low of the day at 222.125 and it bounced again, grinding greater to settle at 223.55. The opening breakdown got here as producers instructed me the packer is attempting the outdated, I purchased sufficient cattle and I’m out of the market routine. The rally to the all-time excessive got here because the packer, not getting producers to decrease costs, jumped again out there at producer ranges. Then the rumor after which the belief that the packer continues to be paying as much as purchase cattle took value again close to the excessive. That is with the continuation of the packer lowering the kill to attempt to get a rebound within the cutout. Thus far, the tactic isn’t working because the cutout was decrease than final week. Exports are weakening and the tariff potential is outweighing the potential for greater exports attributable to commerce agreements. Even when we now have an settlement with China, they nonetheless haven’t issued registrations for our processing amenities. Therefore, no skill to export to China, even when there may be an settlement in precept. It might take a waiver of the registration course of or a wink and a turning of the pinnacle to get exports stepping into speedy vogue. If that doesn’t occur, it could take a month or extra to get the amenities okayed. The packer is aware of provides are tight and they’re in a bind with no assist in sight. Weights haven’t surged and the producer is present, for my part and the grading isn’t bettering. This retains the packer on their toes as they attempt to discover methods to get again management of the market. Thus far, nothing is working. The load counts jumped on the break down within the cutout value and the packer could must get much more aggressive as we go ahead. They’ve extra orders to fill than they’ve had in latest weeks. Their struggles ought to proceed for my part. We’ll see!… A failure from settlement might see value take a look at help on the rising 8-DMA now at 221.775. Assist then is available in at 220.05. If value can maintain settlement, it might take a look at resistance on the all-time excessive. Resistance then is available in at pivot resistance at R2 at 225.75. R3 is at 226.95.
Boxed beef cutouts have been blended as alternative cutouts elevated 0.27 to 373.55 and choose fell 2.35 to 351.49. The selection/ choose unfold widened and is at 22.06 and the load depend was 103.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 101,000, which is even with final week and above final yr’s 100,856. Saturday slaughter is anticipated to be 4,000, which is above final week’s 3,000 and under final yr’s 10,456. The estimated slaughter for the week (thus far) is 563,000, which is under final week’s 568,000 and final yr’s 589,374.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Friday, negotiated money commerce has been principally inactive within the Texas Panhandle and Kansas. The final established market within the Texas Panhandle was Thursday at 230.00. The final established market in Kansas was Thursday from 230.00-231.00. Negotiated money commerce has been gentle on reasonable demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. In Nebraska, in comparison with Thursday, dressed purchases have been principally regular at 380.00 on a lightweight take a look at. The final established dwell market in Nebraska was Thursday with dwell purchases at principally 240.00. Within the Western Cornbelt, in comparison with Thursday, dwell purchases have been regular at 240.00. The final established dressed market within the Weestern Cornbelt was Thursday at 380.00.
The USDA is indicating money trades for dwell cattle from 225.00 – 242.50 and 373.00 – 382.00 on a dressed foundation (thus far).
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Ben DiCostanzo
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Walsh Buying and selling, Inc.
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