Headline shopper inflation climbed to three,5% in July, up from 3,0% the earlier month. This was its highest fee since September 2024, when it was 3,8%, Statistics South Africa reported.
Annual inflation for meals and non-alcoholic drinks rose to five,7%, in contrast with 5,1% in June. Sharp will increase in beef and vegetable costs the primary drivers, highlighting stress factors in South Africa’s agricultural worth chain.
Beef worth inflation stood out, with costs rising 28,8% year-on-year (y/y). Stewing beef elevated from R94,80/kg in July 2024 to R123,87/kg in July 2025, whereas beef mince went from R102,95/kg to R126,79/kg.
Vegetable worth inflation elevated to 14,6% y/y in July, up from 13,6% y/y in June. Carrots (up by 20,7% y/y), lettuce (up by 17,5% y/y), and tomatoes (up by 13,7% y/y) have been among the many largest contributors to the rise. Carrots, nevertheless, noticed an 8,8% worth decline between June and July.
Dairy and eggs remained in deflation, with eggs and a few milk classes cheaper than a yr in the past, though cheese costs continued to rise (Gouda: up 7,2% y/y; Cheddar: up 5,5% y/y).
Dawie Maree, head of agriculture info and advertising and marketing at FNB, mentioned whereas the buyer worth index (CPI) didn’t essentially have a direct impression on the agriculture sector, it mirrored shopper demand, which in flip impacted producers.
Talking to Farmer’s Weekly, Maree mentioned rising meat costs have been primarily the results of two elements: avian influenza outbreak in Brazil, which disrupted poultry imports into South Africa; and ongoing outbreaks of foot-and-mouth illness in South Africa, which restricted native purple meat provide.
“As [meat] costs improve, shoppers are inclined to spend much less on these merchandise. If purple meat costs improve additional, we are able to anticipate shoppers to maneuver to cheaper alternate options like poultry and pork, but in addition to cheaper choices within the purple meat complicated, resembling mince. We would see a discount in purple meat consumption, with knock-on results for farmers and feedlots,” he added.
In the meantime, Maree mentioned vegetable costs remained risky: “[Vegetable prices] are usually the extra risky ones as a result of [they] largely depend upon provide and demand and climate circumstances. With the sudden winter rain in the summertime rainfall space, farmers weren’t capable of harvest potatoes within the brief time period, and that had an impact [on prices].”
He warned that persistently excessive meals inflation might filter by means of to the CPI.
“That is the quantity the Reserve Financial institution makes use of to make rate of interest choices. If we take a look at CPI, excluding meals, we’re nonetheless near the three% mark, and it ought to stay reasonable within the coming months. Subsequently, there isn’t any cause to extend rates of interest simply but,” Maree concluded.
