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Pig outlook—Dec. 12: Lean hog futures bulls lose some steam



14 December 2024

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Lean hog futures costs have backed down from the latest contract excessive and the bulls are fading only a bit, to start to counsel a market high is in place. The newest CME lean hog index is up 29 cents to $83.61 as of Dec. 10. Merchants will preserve a detailed eye on the money market to see if it is a short-term pause or a seasonal backside. The final couple of years it has been widespread for seasonal weak point to persist into the brand new 12 months, somewhat than making a low round Christmas.

Newest USDA and different information concerning the worldwide pork business

Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales

Pork: Internet gross sales of twenty-two,500 MT for 2024 have been down 36 p.c from the earlier week and 1 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (9,100 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Japan (4,500 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), China (2,700 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), have been offset by reductions for Australia (300 MT). Internet gross sales of 4,600 MT for 2025 primarily for South Korea (2,400 MT), Japan (1,100 MT), Canada (500 MT), Mexico (300 MT), and Honduras (200 MT), have been offset by reductions for China (500 MT). Exports of 33,800 MT have been up 5 p.c from the earlier week and 10 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (14,700 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), China (3,100 MT), and Australia (2,000 MT).

China’s meat imports rise in November

China imported 581,000 MT of meat in November, up 46,000 MT (8.6%) from the earlier month and 24,000 MT (4.3%) greater than final 12 months. By means of the primary 11 months of this 12 months, China imported 6.06 MMT of meat, down 11.2% from the identical interval final 12 months.

China resumes British pork imports

Main British pork produces can resume shipments to China, the UK ag ministry introduced. China is the UK’s largest non-EU pork buyer.

The subsequent week’s seemingly high-low worth buying and selling ranges:

February lean hog futures–$82.10 to 87.875 and with a sideways-lower bias

January soybean meal futures–$285.60 to $300.00, and with a sideways bias

March corn futures–$4.40 to $4.60 and a sideways-higher bias

Newest analytical every day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures



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