Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on international pig information
7 December 2024
4 minute learn
This week’s worth motion in February lean hog futures suggests the bulls have turn out to be exhausted at larger ranges. A bearish broadening sample has shaped on the each day bar chart. The newest CME lean hog index is up 1 cent to $84.01 as of Dec. 3, pausing the three-week worth slide. Seasonally, the money hog index and pork cutout may face extra stress, although hog slaughter numbers have been working nicely underneath ranges implied by USDA’s September Hogs & Pigs Report, limiting regular fourth-quarter worth weak spot.
Newest USDA and different information relating to the worldwide pork trade
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet gross sales of 35,200 MT for 2024 have been up noticeably from the earlier week and from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (15,400 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (9,100 MT, together with decreases of 1,300 MT), China (3,400 MT), Australia (2,300 MT), and Japan (2,200 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), have been offset by reductions for Malaysia (400 MT) and Hong Kong (400 MT). Internet gross sales of 26,600 MT for 2025 have been primarily for China (10,300 MT), Mexico (8,700 MT), South Korea (5,300 MT), Colombia (1,000 MT), and Japan (500 MT). Exports of 32,200 MT have been up 14 % from the earlier week and a couple of % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,700 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), China (3,500 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).
First Circuit weighs nationwide influence of Massachusetts pork legislation
The First Circuit Court docket is evaluating the constitutionality of a Massachusetts legislation that mandates humane confinement requirements for pigs whose pork is bought within the state. The legislation, which bans gross sales of pork from pigs confined in restrictive stalls, has drawn criticism from pork processors like Triumph Meals LLC. They argue it imposes undue burdens on out-of-state producers, probably violating the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Structure. Supporters of the legislation level to the Supreme Court docket’s 2023 determination upholding California’s humane-pork legislation, suggesting the Massachusetts regulation will not be discriminatory. The case may have far-reaching penalties for the U.S. pork trade, with issues over how various state legal guidelines would possibly reshape nationwide manufacturing requirements.
China’s sow herd, hog slaughter contract
China’s sow herd totaled 40.73 million head on the finish of October, in line with the ag ministry, down 3.2% from year-ago. Via the primary 10 months of the yr, China’s hog slaughter fell 2.6% from the identical interval final yr to 264.21 million head.
China lifts closing commerce restrictions on Australian meat processors
China has lifted commerce restrictions on two Australian meat processing services, permitting the complete resumption of crimson meat exports to the nation, the Australian authorities mentioned. Beijing has now eliminated restrictions from all 10 Australian meat processors it banned between 2020 and 2022. China is the second largest marketplace for Australian beef and veal after the US.
FDA and USDA search enter on meals date labeling practices to fight waste
FDA and USDA issued a joint Request for Info (RFI) to assemble insights on meals date labeling, akin to “Promote By,” “Use By,” and “Greatest By,” aiming to deal with shopper confusion and its contribution to meals waste. The RFI seeks information on trade practices, shopper perceptions, and the financial and environmental impacts of date labeling.
Estimates recommend that confusion over labeling contributes to twenty% of family meals waste, costing the typical household of 4 $1,500 yearly. The RFI helps the Nationwide Technique for Lowering Meals Loss and Waste, which targets a 50% discount by 2030. Stakeholders have 60 days to remark, serving to form future insurance policies or academic campaigns. Additional data on how you can submit a remark might be discovered within the Federal Register.
Walmart CEO on meals inflation, e-commerce, and future traits
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon initiatives continued meals inflation into 2025, pushed by pressures on eggs, dairy, cocoa and different inputs. Talking on the 2024 Morgan Stanley International Shopper and Retail Convention, McMillon expressed optimism about shopper resilience regardless of climbing costs. He famous that egg and milk costs would possibly stabilize quicker than processed meals, which may stay elevated subsequent yr.
Walmart’s pricing methods and provide chain upgrades have bolstered its market place, with robust meals unit quantity progress and management in consumer-packaged items (CPG) market share. The retailer’s e-commerce enterprise, notably Walmart Market, continues to develop, attaining double-digit features for six consecutive quarters.
Trying forward, McMillon emphasised investments in automation, social commerce, and personalization as key drivers for Walmart’s evolving retail technique.
WHO requires stronger surveillance of H5N1 amongst animals
A World Well being Group (WHO) official on Thursday referred to as for stronger surveillance in animals for proof of an infection with H5N1 to curb its unfold. The official additionally urged stronger efforts to cut back the chance of transmission of the virus to new species of animals and to people. The company mentioned it’s in contact with accomplice companies such because the World Group for Animal Well being and Meals and Agriculture Group to extend surveillance in animals.
The following week’s possible high-low worth buying and selling ranges:
February lean hog futures–$84.00 to 89.60 and with a sideways-lower bias
January soybean meal futures–$287.00 to $300.00, and with a sideways bias
March corn futures–$4.25 1/2 to $4.36 and a sideways bias
Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
