Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff experiences on international pig information
5 October 2025
3 minute learn
Extra profit-taking strain from the shorter-term speculative merchants was featured in lean hog futures buying and selling Wednesday, which marked the third straight session of value losses and suggests the bulls at the moment are exhausted and {that a} market high could also be in place. Danger aversion was keener within the common market Wednesday amid the U.S. authorities shutdown and following a really weak month-to-month ADP jobs report. Nonetheless, futures’ reductions to the money hog index could restrict additional promoting strain in hog futures. Money and recent pork fundamentals are weakening. The most recent CME lean hog index is down 5 cents at $104.73. At this time’s projected money hog index is down 47 cents at $104.26. Wednesday’s nationwide direct 5-day rolling common money hog value quote was $102.43.
NPPC urges motion on China’s boundaries to U.S. pork commerce
Regardless of commerce commitments, China’s restrictions threaten over $1.1 billion in U.S. pork exports
The Nationwide Pork Producers Council (NPPC) submitted feedback to the U.S. Commerce Consultant outlining how China’s commerce practices proceed to unfairly prohibit U.S. pork exports. These measures, together with tariffs, subsidies, and unjustified sanitary boundaries, violate China’s World Commerce Group commitments and persist regardless of guarantees made underneath the 2020 Section One commerce deal.
NPPC highlighted particular points comparable to China’s ban on pork from vegetation not reapproved for export, necessary testing for the feed additive ractopamine (regardless of worldwide security requirements), and elevated inspections linked to animal ailments already current in China.
With China being the third-largest worth marketplace for U.S. pork — accounting for $1.1 billion in exports and 59% of pork selection meat gross sales — NPPC emphasised the dearth of viable alternate options and urged stronger enforcement of commerce guidelines to guard U.S. pork producers.
China’s pork costs slide
Golden Week vacation increase muted as oversupply and weak demand weigh
China’s pork costs have fallen to recent lows forward of the Golden Week vacation, with a bleak demand outlook providing little aid to a sector already fighting extra provide and sluggish consumption, Bloomberg reported.
Wholesale pork costs are on observe to hit their lowest degree in 18 months, signaling that latest authorities efforts to curb manufacturing have but to stabilize the market. Regardless of expectations that tens of millions of Chinese language shoppers will journey, store, and dine in the course of the eight-day vacation beginning Wednesday, wholesalers and retailers have shunned the large-scale stockpiling usually seen throughout this era.
Beijing has been urgent main pig producers to chop capability to assist help costs. Pork, a staple in Chinese language diets, can also be a key part of the buyer value index, making the business’s weak spot central to broader efforts to fight deflationary pressures. “Pork consumption improved slightly in September, however hog provides have remained ample… it should due to this fact be tough for costs to rebound considerably within the fourth quarter,” Guangda Futures famous. Authorities information present sow herds remained elevated at 40.38 million heads in August, just about unchanged from the prior month.
China’s most-traded pig futures continued to slip after a 3% drop on Monday. Pork costs have plunged 21% over the previous 12 months, leaving farmers with common losses of about 162 yuan ($23) per pig, Bloomberg reported. Analysts at Mysteel advised downstream demand might progressively enhance with vacation eating, however time is working quick for the sector to see significant aid.
Newest USDA chilly storage report particulars
Frozen U.S. beef provides totaled 393.8 million lbs. on the finish of August, down 4.0 million lbs. (1%) from July, however up (1.5%) from year-ago, in line with USDA’s newest Chilly Storage report that was launched Friday afternoon. The report confirmed 393.9 million lbs. of pork in frozen storage on the finish of August, down 10.7 million lbs. (2.7%) from July and 61.4 million lbs. (13.5%) from August 2024. Pork bellies declined 25% from final month and eight.5% from year-ago. Complete frozen poultry provides on August 31 had been down barely from the earlier month and from year-ago. Complete shares of chickens had been down 2% from the earlier month however up 4% from final 12 months. Complete kilos of turkeys in freezers had been up 3% from final month, however down 8% from Aug. 31, 2024.
The following week’s seemingly high-low value buying and selling ranges:
- December lean hog futures–$85.00 to $90.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
- December soybean meal futures–$260.00 to $280.00, and with a sideways bias
- December corn futures–$4.10 1/2 to $4.25 and a sideways bias
Newest analytical every day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
