Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on the worldwide pig market
17 February 2025
3 minute learn
April lean hog futures on Wednesday gapped greater and pushed to a brand new contract excessive, supported by bullish money hog market fundamentals. The newest CME lean hog index is up one other 89 cents to $87.08 as of Feb. 11, marking the most important day by day improve within the seasonal worth rise. The index has gained $6.65 since a seasonal low in early January. Merchants are realizing
USDA’s December hogs and pigs report hog inhabitants estimate seems to be too excessive. Weekly hog slaughter ranges proceed to be beneath ranges seen on the similar tim a 12 months in the past. The near-term technical posture for April lean hogs stays absolutely bullish, suggesting extra worth upside within the close to time period.
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet gross sales of 24,900 MT for 2025 had been primarily for Japan (6,200 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,300 MT), and Colombia (2,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 31,000 MT had been primarily to Mexico (12,000 MT), South Korea (4,000 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), China (3,200 MT), and Colombia (1,700 MT).
USDA month-to-month report on US livestock
LIVESTOCK: Pink meat, poultry, and egg provide and use estimates for 2024 are adjusted to mirror December manufacturing, ending inventory, and commerce information.
Pork manufacturing is raised as greater weights all year long greater than offset the slower charge of slaughter anticipated within the first quarter. Broiler manufacturing is unchanged, with an anticipated slower charge of slaughter within the first quarter, partly attributable to Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling, offset by elevated manufacturing within the third quarter.
Pork exports are lowered for the second half of the 12 months on slower-than-previously-expected development in a number of key export markets. The broiler export forecast is lowered on latest commerce information and elevated international export competitors. The turkey export forecast is lowered on lowered home provides.
For 2025, hog costs are raised for the primary quarter on latest costs.
US pork exports end 2024 on a powerful be aware
The US exported 645.8 million lbs. of pork throughout December, the second most for the month behind 2019 and the very best month-to-month tally since April 2024. For 2024, pork shipments totaled 7.115 billion lbs., up 291.3 million lbs. (4.3%) from the earlier 12 months, fueled by a 3.7% improve to prime purchaser Mexico and a 12.0% bounce to South Korea. Beef exports totaled 258.9 million lbs. in December. In 2024, beef shipments reached 3.003 billion lbs., down 34.9 million lbs. (1.1%) from the earlier 12 months as lowered exports to South Korea, China and Canada greater than offset will increase to Japan, Mexico and Taiwan.
The subsequent week’s doubtless high-low worth buying and selling ranges:
April lean hog futures–$91.00 to $98.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
March soybean meal futures–$290.00 to $310.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures–$4.80 to $5.00 and a sideways bias
