Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on world pig information
20 December 2024
3 minute learn
February lean hog futures costs are trending down on the day by day bar chart. Nonetheless, bettering money hog market fundamentals may restrict the draw back within the close to time period. The most recent CME lean hog index is up one other 18 cents to $84.16 as of Dec. 17, the fourth acquire within the final six days. Whereas the web acquire throughout that span is barely 84 cents, the index is exhibiting indicators of a possible seasonal backside. Pork cutout was up $1.58 to $96.35 Wednesday, a recent for-the-move excessive.
Newest USDA and different information relating to the worldwide pork trade
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet gross sales of 11,200 MT for 2024 have been down 50 % from the earlier week and 52 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (2,800 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,300 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 1,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and China (900 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), have been offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT) and Hong Kong (100 MT). Internet gross sales of 5,800 MT for 2025 primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Japan (500 MT), and Canada (400 MT), have been offset by reductions for China (900 MT). Exports of 31,600 MT have been down 7 % from the earlier week, however unchanged from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,800 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), China (3,100 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).
China’s pork imports double in November however nonetheless beneath year-ago
China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, double the quantity it introduced in throughout the earlier month however nonetheless 3.4% lower than final 12 months. Via the primary 11 months of this 12 months, China imported 2.09 MMT of pork, down 17.4% from the identical interval final 12 months.
USDA Livestock Outlook: December 2024
Pork/Hogs: Processor spreads dropped in November as pork product costs declined extra quickly than hog product costs. It’s notable, nonetheless, that each fourth-quarter hog costs and wholesale pork costs are anticipated to stay above year-earlier value ranges on account of fewer numbers of slaughter-ready hogs than anticipated, supporting wholesale pork costs so far within the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter hog costs are raised to $62 per cwt, nearly 16 % above costs a 12 months in the past, whereas pork manufacturing is lowered barely to 7.24 billion kilos, nonetheless about 1 % increased than fourth-quarter 2023 pork manufacturing. October pork exports have been nearly 2 % increased than a 12 months earlier, however weak point in shipments to Mexico weighed on the entire October export quantity. The fourth-quarter export forecast is lowered 35 million kilos to 1.875 billion kilos on account of expectations of upper U.S. hog and pork costs for the stability of 2024.
The subsequent week’s probably high-low value buying and selling ranges:
February lean hog futures–$82.10 to 86.60 and with a sideways-lower bias
January soybean meal futures–$265.60 to $293.90, and with a sideways-lower bias
March corn futures–$4.30 to $4.46 3/4 and a sideways-lower bias
Newest analytical day by day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
