Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on world pig information
31 January 2025
4 minute learn
April lean hog futures on Wednesday pushed to a virtually two-month excessive and the bulls have restarted a value uptrend on the every day bar chart. Bulls have the strong chart benefit to recommend nonetheless extra value upside within the close to time period. Basically, the newest CME lean hog index is up one other 48 cents to $82.59 as of Jan. 28, marking the largest every day acquire through the rise over the previous three weeks. The surge to file highs in cattle futures markets has possible performed a task in latest power within the hog futures market as merchants buy comparatively cheaper hogs. Pork cutout worth has climbed to the very best stage in almost a month, with bulls hoping cutout power will spill over to the money hog index.
Newest USDA and different information concerning the worldwide pork trade
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 33,600 MT for 2025 primarily for Mexico (11,800 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), China (11,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), have been offset by reductions for Hong Kong (400 MT). Exports of 34,100 MT have been primarily to Mexico (12,700 MT), the Bahamas (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), and China (2,600 MT).
Smithfield raises $522 million in IPO
Smithfield Meals Inc.’s preliminary public providing raised $522 million, with shares pricing under the marketed vary. The world’s largest pork producer and an not directly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed WH Group Ltd., bought about 26 million shares for $20 every, in response to an announcement. Smithfield and its proprietor provided 17.4 million shares every for $23 to $27 apiece, a earlier submitting confirmed. WH Group, which acquired Smithfield greater than a decade in the past, will keep management of the corporate after the itemizing.
Historic US money cattle surge continues
Frozen US pork inventories report mildly unfavorable
USDA’s Chilly Storage Report confirmed US pork shares stood at 400.4 million lbs., up 9.3 million lbs. from November, greater than the five-year common improve of two.5 million lbs. for the month.
USDA 2025 meals value outlook
The January 2025 Meals Worth Outlook summarizes latest traits in meals costs primarily based on Shopper Worth Index (CPI) and Producer Worth Index (PPI) information by means of December 2024. Whereas meals value inflation has slowed total, key sectors like eggs and beef stay unstable as a consequence of provide chain and enter price pressures.
Key Highlights: Pork and fat/oils costs are forecasted to say no in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
Germany’s pork sector faces mounting challenges
Germany’s first outbreak of foot-and-mouth illness in almost 40 years has dealt a extreme blow to its struggling pork trade, Bloomberg stories. For the reason that outbreak on Jan. 10, main export locations just like the UK, South Korea, and Mexico have banned German pork imports, costing the nation at the very least €1 billion ($1.05 billion) in misplaced gross sales, in response to the farm cooperatives group DRV.
This setback follows years of turbulence, together with African swine fever outbreaks since 2020, which led to bans from key markets corresponding to China. In the meantime, rising feed and power prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated the sector’s decline, with Spain overtaking Germany as Europe’s high pork exporter.
Declining home demand, pushed by shifting dietary preferences and animal welfare issues, has left the trade more and more reliant on exports. Analysts observe that whereas a stronger European economic system in 2025 would possibly increase native consumption, world commerce dynamics—together with potential coverage adjustments beneath a second Trump administration—may play a vital function.
Including to the uncertainty, China’s investigation into alleged dumping of EU pork may lead to tariffs, intensifying competitors inside the European market. These pressures underscore the challenges dealing with Germany’s once-dominant pork sector.
The following week’s possible high-low value buying and selling ranges:
April lean hog futures–$88.00 to $95.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
March soybean meal futures–$300.00 to $321.60, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures–$4.80 to $5.10 and a sideways-higher bias
Newest analytical every day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
