Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on international pig information
20 June 2025
6 minute learn
Lean hog futures set contract highs this week. Any draw back pullbacks have been restricted as strong power in money hog and park market fundamentals proceed to underpin futures. The newest CME lean hog index is up one other $1.25 to $104.95 as of June 16, marking the biggest each day achieve of the continued seasonal rally. The hog index will this week attain the best quote since August of 2022. The hovering beef and cattle markets are additionally underpinning the bull markets in pork and hogs.
China’s pork imports surge in Could
Month-to-month and year-to-date progress displays stronger demand
China’s pork imports reached 90,000 metric tons (MT) in Could, marking a 12.5% enhance from April and an 11.7% rise in comparison with Could of the earlier yr. This uptick highlights a rebound in demand for imported pork, seemingly pushed by home provide constraints and evolving client preferences.
By the primary 5 months of 2025, China’s cumulative pork imports totaled 450,000 MT, which is 5.8% greater than the identical interval in 2024. This sustained progress means that China is relying extra closely on worldwide pork suppliers to fulfill home consumption wants.
Outlook: Analysts anticipate China’s pork import volumes to stay strong within the coming months, particularly if home manufacturing stays risky or if client demand continues to rise. The nation’s import developments are intently watched by international pork exporters, as China stays the world’s largest pork client and a key driver of worldwide commerce flows.
China targets ‘refattening’ as authorities cracks down on speculative pig fattening
Beijing strikes to slim down hogs, stabilize pork market and curb grain waste
China is ramping up efforts to curb the speculative apply of “refattening” pigs, as authorities search to stabilize risky pork costs and minimize down on expensive feed waste amid the continued U.S. commerce battle. In line with Reuters, small Chinese language breeders and farmers have more and more purchased market-ready pigs from massive breeders and fattened them for further months — hoping to revenue if pork costs rise. This “refattening” provides 40-50kg to every hog, however analysts warn it results in massive worth swings and inefficiencies. “It may result in short-term shortages adopted by a glut, driving massive worth swings and unsettling the market,” stated Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank.
China’s high pig breeder, Muyuan Meals, confirmed it lately halted gross sales to refatteners after rumors of a authorities coverage crackdown. Sources advised Reuters that Guangdong province is very strict in imposing the brand new guidelines.
Regulators fear the apply worsens oversupply and deepens pork worth drops. Money hog costs have slumped from 21 yuan/kg final August to only 14 yuan/kg since February, with weak demand and eroded margins.
Feed effectivity can also be in focus as Beijing pushes to chop grain use — particularly soybeans, a key import from the U.S. “Pigs are best at round 120 kg—past that, they eat extra however develop much less,” Pan added.
Of word: The Nationwide Improvement and Reform Fee and Muyuan Meals declined Reuters’
requests for remark.
USDA month-to-month beef, pork, poultry and dairy report for June
The whole U.S. purple meat and poultry manufacturing forecast for 2025 is lowered from final month.
- Beef manufacturing is lowered on diminished steer and heifer slaughter within the second quarter and diminished cow slaughter for the rest of the yr.
- Pork manufacturing is unchanged from the earlier month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be launched on June 26, will present indications of provides of hogs for slaughter within the outlying quarters in addition to into early 2026.
- Broiler manufacturing is raised on latest manufacturing and hatchery knowledge.
- Turkey manufacturing is lowered on latest hatchery knowledge.
- Egg manufacturing is lowered on latest layer stock knowledge, in addition to latest discoveries of Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in business laying flocks.
For 2026, purple meat and poultry manufacturing is raised on greater beef and turkey manufacturing. Beef manufacturing is raised totally on greater feedlot placements within the second half of 2025 and early 2026, that are anticipated to end in greater steer and heifer slaughter for 2026. Turkey manufacturing is raised on improved returns. The pork and broiler manufacturing forecasts are unchanged.
EXPORT FORECAST: The meat export forecast for 2025 is raised on latest commerce knowledge and continued sturdy demand from key export markets. The meat import forecast can also be raised on sturdy imports from Oceania and South America, in addition to strong home demand for lean processing beef.
The pork export forecast is diminished for 2025 on latest commerce knowledge and elevated export competitors. For 2026, pork exports are additionally diminished on continued export competitors.
The 2025 broiler export forecast is raised primarily based on latest commerce knowledge indicating greater shipments within the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as greater U.S. costs are anticipated to make exports much less aggressive in vacation spot markets.
PRICE FORECAST: Cattle worth forecasts for 2025 are raised on latest worth power and continued demand for cattle. The elevated worth forecasts are carried over into 2026 as effectively. Hog worth forecasts are raised for 2025, primarily based on latest costs, in addition to comparatively tight pork inventories and elevated cattle costs supporting hog demand. Raised hog worth forecasts carry over into early 2026. Broiler worth forecasts are raised for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by greater costs of competing animal proteins. Turkey worth forecasts are additionally raised for 2025 and 2026 primarily based on latest worth power. The egg worth forecast for 2025 is lowered barely for the third quarter primarily based on latest costs, however the worth forecast for 2026 is unchanged.
Milk manufacturing forecasts are raised for each 2025 and 2026. Based mostly on the most recent Milk Manufacturing report, cow inventories are raised for 2025 and milk per cow is raised for each 2025 and 2026. For 2025 and 2026, business exports forecasts are raised on a fats foundation, primarily resulting from competitively priced butter exports, in addition to greater cheese and fluid product exports.
On a skim solids foundation, export forecasts are diminished on decrease shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Import forecasts for 2025 are raised on each a fats foundation and skim-solids foundation. For 2026, imports are raised on a skim-solids foundation, however unchanged on a fats foundation. For 2025, butter, cheese, whey, and NDM worth forecasts are raised from the earlier month on latest worth power. The all milk worth forecast is raised to $21.95 per cwt. For 2026, butter, cheese, and whey worth forecasts are raised as sturdy demand is anticipated to soak up the expansion in milk manufacturing. NDM costs are unchanged from the earlier month. Class III and Class IV worth forecasts are raised as effectively. The all milk worth forecast for 2026 is $21.30 per cwt.
The subsequent week’s seemingly high-low worth buying and selling ranges:
August lean hog futures–$108.45 to $115.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
July soybean meal futures–$280.00 to $295.00, and with a sideways bias
July corn futures–$4.25 to $4.46 1/2 and a sideways bias
Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
