Pig outlook: Lean hog futures see technical shopping for curiosity

29 August 2025

4 minute learn

October lean hogs Wednesday rose 90 cents to $94.325 and hit a two-month excessive. The lean hog futures market is surging this week on technical shopping for from the chart-based speculators and as a result of hovering dwell and feeder cattle futures markets which can be at report highs. Nonetheless, money hog and pork market fundamentals have weakened a bit this week. The most recent CME lean hog index is down one other 41 cents to $106.86 as of Aug. 25. Thursday’s CME money index is projected down one other 23 cents to $106.63. The nationwide direct five-day rolling common money hog worth quote right this moment is $108.40.

Newest USDA and different information concerning the worldwide pork trade

Weekly US pork export gross sales

Pork: Web gross sales of 42,400 MT for 2025 have been up noticeably from the earlier week and up 53 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (26,700 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,400 MT), and Guatemala (1,400 MT), have been offset by reductions for Cuba (100 MT). Exports of 25,600 MT have been down 10 % from the earlier week and seven % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), China (2,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

USDA Sees Reasonable Meals Inflation in 2025, Slower Tempo Anticipated in 2026

Grocery costs lag behind eating places as beef and eggs drive sharp will increase; wholesale markets sign additional volatility

Client Value Index (CPI) report exhibits meals costs rising largely in keeping with general inflation. From June to July 2025, the all-food CPI rose 0.2%, the identical tempo as economy-wide inflation, and stood 2.9% greater than a yr earlier.

Grocery vs. Eating places

The divergence between at-home and away-from-home meals prices persists:

• Meals-at-home (groceries): +0.1% in July, +2.2% year-on-year.
• Meals-away-from-home (eating places): +0.3% in July, +3.9% year-on-year.

This break up continues a decade-long pattern through which restaurant meals climb sooner than grocery costs, reflecting greater labor and repair prices.

USDA August Forecast for 2025

USDA’s Financial Analysis Service (ERS) tasks meals worth progress this yr to stay close to historic averages:

• All meals: +2.9% (prediction interval: 2.3–3.4%)
• Meals-at-home: +2.2% (1.4–3.0%)
• Meals-away-from-home: +3.9% (3.5–4.2%)

Inside classes, volatility is sharp:

• Eggs: +24.4% forecast, reflecting lingering fallout from Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
• Beef & Veal: +9.9% as cattle herds shrink however demand stays sturdy.
• Recent Greens: –0.8% after 2024’s weather-driven spikes.
• Pork: +1.6%, Poultry: +2.5%.
• Sugar & Sweets: +4.7%, Nonalcoholic Drinks: +3.6%, tied to greater world espresso and citrus prices.

2026 Outlook: Slower Progress, Wider Uncertainty

In 2026, meals inflation is predicted to ease additional:

• All meals: +2.2% (–2.9 to +7.5%)
• Meals-at-home: +1.2% (–6.3 to +9.2%)
• Meals-away-from-home: +3.3% (0.5–6.1%)

The vast ranges underscore dangers from power costs, commerce coverage, climate shocks, and illness outbreaks.

Producer Value Index (PPI) Outlook: Wholesale Alerts Forward

Whereas CPI displays shopper costs, the PPI tracks farm- and wholesale-level costs that always foreshadow retail actions. USDA doesn’t formally forecast PPIs however highlights anticipated traits in 2025:

• Cattle & Beef: Farm-level cattle costs predicted to surge 21.4%, with wholesale beef up 10.5%. Herd contraction and tight provide stay key drivers.
• Eggs: Farm-level costs forecast to rise a risky 46.1%, although latest declines in HPAI circumstances may mood pressures.
• Milk: +1.8% anticipated, with modest positive factors regardless of elevated manufacturing.
• Fruits: –1.8% forecast, whereas greens present a sharper –11.4% decline after this yr’s weather-driven spikes.
• Wheat: –9.3% predicted, persevering with post-Ukraine battle declines however at a slower tempo.

As a result of PPIs are extra risky and nearer to manufacturing shocks, they typically function main indicators for consumer-level CPI. Present forecasts recommend continued upward strain on beef and eggs, whereas aid might come from greens, fruits, and wheat.

Historic Context

Meals inflation surged almost 10% in 2022, the quickest since 1979, fueled by avian flu, the Russia-Ukraine battle, and excessive power prices. Costs slowed to five.8% in 2023 and a couple of.3% in 2024 as provide chains healed and inflationary pressures cooled. The 2025 outlook factors to a return to extra typical progress, however sharp divergences throughout classes spotlight the uneven restoration.

The following week’s seemingly high-low worth buying and selling ranges:

October lean hog futures–$91.00 to $97.05 and with a sideways-higher bias

September soybean meal futures–$285.00 to $305.60, and with a sideways-higher bias

December corn futures–$4.00 to $4.16 1/2 and a sideways bias

Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures