Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff experiences on world pig information
14 March 2025
4 minute learn
April lean hog futures costs have made a strong rebound from the early-March low, to counsel a market backside is in place. Futures costs have been supported by their reductions to the money hog market. The most recent CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $89.77 as of March 11, ending a five-day worth slide. Nevertheless, weak point in pork cutout has restricted the upside in futures. Pork cutout worth fell $3.00 to $94.58 Wednesday, the bottom since Feb. 20. Cutout continues to drive commerce within the money hog market. Every time pork cutout developments decrease, demand picks up, indicating robust grocer demand.
Newest USDA and different information relating to the worldwide pork business
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet gross sales of 20,300 MT for 2025–a marketing-year low–were down 52 p.c from the earlier week and 35 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (6,300 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (5,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (1,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), had been offset by reductions for Canada (300 MT). Exports of 33,600 MT had been up 4 p.c from the earlier week and 5 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (11,200 MT), South Korea (5,900 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), Colombia (2,800 MT), and China (2,600 MT).
USDA month-to-month WASDE experiences on livestock
Whole crimson meat and poultry manufacturing for 2025 is raised on greater beef and rooster manufacturing forecasts, which is partially offset by decrease pork and turkey manufacturing forecasts. The upper beef manufacturing forecast is because of heavier dressed weights greater than offsetting decrease slaughter.
Pork manufacturing is lowered on a slower charge of slaughter within the first quarter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. USDA will launch the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, offering an extra indication of hog provides for slaughter within the second half of the yr. Pork exports are diminished on decrease anticipated home provides and elevated world worth competitors. Hog worth forecasts are lowered for the second and third quarters, based mostly on latest costs and barely weaker demand than beforehand anticipated.
USDA: China Livestock and Merchandise Semi-Annual Report
USDA in a submit maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of each pork and beef manufacturing. Because of the decline in home beef manufacturing and rising market demand, Publish forecasts beef imports to develop in 2025. Publish revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to ranges just like 2024 owing to depressed demand. The report forecast displays animal illness insurance policies/restrictions and commerce insurance policies in place as of March 3, 2025 and assumes their continuation. Publish acknowledges however doesn’t embody in its forecast the potential impacts of latest retaliatory tariffs introduced on March 4, 2025, by the Chinese language Authorities, which come into impact on March 10, 2025, in addition to the upcoming registration expirations of lots of of U.S. meat institutions as they don’t seem to be in impact on the time of this publication. Market entry for U.S. beef and pork stays constrained because the Chinese language authorities isn’t implementing related annexes for meat commerce specified within the Financial and Commerce Settlement (i.e., Section One Settlement).
China’s Jan.-Feb. meat imports barely beneath year-ago
China imported 1.098 MMT of meat (together with offal) throughout the first two months of the yr, down 3,000 MT (0.2%) from final yr. China doesn’t break down meat imports by class within the preliminary information, however the bulk is pork/pork merchandise.
World meals costs rise in February
The UN Meals and Agriculture Group world meals worth index rose 1.6% in February and was 8.2% above year-ago. Whereas meat costs remained secure, all different worth indices rose throughout February, with essentially the most vital will increase recorded for sugar, dairy and vegoils. In comparison with year-ago, costs rose 4.9% for meat, 23.2% for dairy and 29.0% for vegoils, whereas values fell 1.1% for cereal grains and 15.8% for sugar.
The following week’s doubtless high-low worth buying and selling ranges:
April lean hog futures–$82.50 to $90.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
Might soybean meal futures–$300.00 to $320.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
Might corn futures–$4.60 to $4.80 and a sideways-higher bias
Newest analytical each day charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
