Grilling season has arrived. Rabobank analysts dig into pricing of our favourite BBQ necessities
20 Could 2025
4 minute learn
Rabobank, a premier world meals and agribusiness financial institution based 125 years in the past and a number one financier of the power transition, at present launched the annual BBQ Index forward of grilling season. Rabobank’s analyst findings define that the cherished summer time ritual could be a welcome respite from tariffs and commerce wars—costs are up, however principally home provide chains imply principally home causes for these will increase.
Rationale and methodology
The Rabobank BBQ Index assumes a mean American BBQ scenario—a mixture of household and buddies—forward of summer time grilling season. That features 10 adults with every consuming the identical quantity of meals and drinks. We assume every particular person will devour one cheeseburger with lettuce and tomato, one rooster sandwich with lettuce, tomato and a slice of cheese, two handfuls of chips, two beers, a soda and some scoops of ice cream. As a way of comparability, the BBQ Index parallels the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a knowledge supply. We chosen the month-to-month knowledge sequence “common value index, US metropolis common.”
“On the entire, Individuals nonetheless spend much less of our pockets on meals than our counterparts in most different nations, however that hole is closing throughout the board,” mentioned Tom Bailey, Senior Client Meals Analyst, Rabobank.
For 2025 the BBQ Index highlights a 10-person BBQ is dearer this yr than final, 4.21 p.c dearer to be actual.
Costs have risen for a lot of components present in a standard summer time BBQ. Nonetheless, regardless of the rise, the important objects for summertime grilling haven’t been hit as exhausting by inflation as another shopper items. As an example, eggs, though a small element of the general meals basket used to find out the Client Worth Index, have solely not too long ago begun to lower in value after experiencing vital year-over-year value spikes. A robust home provide chain for most of the objects on the desk implies that the worth will increase are because of different elements apart from commerce uncertainty.
Beef is beefing up
Senior Beef Analyst for Rabobank, Lance Zimmerman acknowledged, “Beef provide, particularly the recent product Individuals prefer to grill, is usually home. Costs are up, however the causes embrace a continued sturdy demand for beef regardless of financial considerations coupled with a years-long downward pattern in provide.”
The meat cowherd measurement has been lowering since 2019, main to produce constraints. Nonetheless, shoppers have maintained their beef purchases regardless of financial difficulties, leading to larger costs as a result of mixture of restricted provide and strong demand.
Cheese please!
American shoppers’ love of cheese each pure and processed has proven no indicators of slowing. We ate 8.5 kilos of processed cheese in 2023 (essentially the most since 1999) and hit an all-time report of 40.5 kilos of pure cheese per particular person. Costs for processed cheese spiked in June of 2024 after which fell again off, so there’s an opportunity the American cheese single in your burger this summer time may not price any greater than its predecessor ultimately yr’s BBQ.
Beer – essentially the most American beverage?
“Between comparatively native provide chains and the power of some multinational breweries to shift manufacturing of various manufacturers from one location to a different, beer costs for the BBQ will likely be much less more likely to be affected by tariffs, outdoors of some true imports,” mentioned Jim Watson, Beverage Analyst, Rabobank.
The beer provide chain usually operates on a neighborhood degree, permitting main brewers to shift manufacturing of their ‘imported’ manufacturers to US breweries in response to tariff adjustments. Through the years, the beer market has seen a pattern in the direction of ‘premiumization,’ favoring upscale manufacturers over budget-friendly choices, leading to value hikes which have outpaced wines and spirits. Presently, shopper preferences are shifting in the direction of exhausting seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails, doubtlessly main brewers to grapple with an oversupply of stock akin to challenges skilled by the competing wine and spirit producers.
The takeaway
Costs for the yard BBQ in 2025 are on the rise, pushed by provide and demand dynamics and inflation moderately than tariffs. The all-American summer time BBQ expertise is carefully tied to an all-American provide chain, shielding yard cooks from the uncertainties of commerce wars. Digest extra of the Rabobank 2025 BBQ Index that includes dairy, poultry, baking and produce right here.
