Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on international protein information
8 November 2024
9 minute learn
Weekly USDA U.S. beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet gross sales of 8,000 MT for 2024–a marketing-year low–were down 43 p.c from the earlier week and 45 from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), have been offset by reductions for Vietnam (300 MT). Internet gross sales of two,300 MT for 2025 have been reported for Mexico (2,200 MT) and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 14,400 MT have been down 9 p.c from the earlier week and from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to South Korea (4,100 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), China (2,000 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).
Pork: Internet gross sales reductions of 14,700 MT for 2024–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the earlier week and from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Japan (2,300 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT, together with decreases of two,900 MT), Panama (200 MT), the Dominican Republic (200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), and Nicaragua (100 MT), have been greater than offset by reductions primarily for Mexico (7,700 MT), China (5,000 MT), Australia (2,900 MT), Colombia (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Internet gross sales of 200 MT for 2025 have been reported for South Korea (100 MT) and Vietnam (100 MT). Exports of 35,000 MT have been up 8 p.c from the earlier week and 16 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,900 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), China (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), and Colombia (2,700 MT).
China’s meat imports proceed to sluggish
China imported 535,000 MT of meat throughout October, down 1.1% from September and three.1% lower than year-ago. Via the primary 10 months of this yr, China imported 5.475 MMT of meat, down 12.5% from the identical interval final yr.
First spherical of obligatory milk testing in northern Utah recognized chicken flu infections in eight dairy herds
That’s based on the Utah Division of Agriculture and Meals final week. Utah is the fifteenth state to report the avian flu virus in dairy cattle for the reason that illness was first recognized in herds in Texas in March.
California dairy farmers face escalating avian flu outbreak
Dairy farmers in California are contending with a worsening avian flu outbreak that has impacted over 170 herds since late August, representing practically half of all U.S. instances in dairy cows since March. As California leads the nation in milk manufacturing, the flu’s continued unfold raises issues about potential shortages, regardless of no present disruptions. The problem stays delicate, with many farmers hesitant to debate it publicly however acknowledging its significance, based on a Bloomberg article
First case of H5N1 chicken flu in swine confirmed at Oregon yard farm
USDA’s APHIS and Oregon state officers are investigating a yard farm the place H5N1 avian influenza was detected in poultry and, for the primary time, in certainly one of 5 pigs. Regardless of no indicators of sickness, the swine examined optimistic, and all have been euthanized. Shared assets could have facilitated cross-species transmission. The farm has been quarantined, however USDA reassures there isn’t any threat to the U.S. pork provide, and genomic sequencing reveals no elevated human transmissibility. The Nationwide Pork Producers Council emphasised that there are not any security issues about U.S. pork provide, noting the pork trade has labored with USDA’s APHIS since 2009 to observe for swine flu. “Your complete pork trade stays dedicated to safeguarding meals security and human and animal well being,” NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys stated in a press release. The pigs on the Oregon farm weren’t supposed for the industrial meals provide, USDA stated.
Of notice: Pigs signify a selected concern for the unfold of chicken flu as a result of they’ll turn out to be co-infected with chicken and human viruses, which may swap genes to type a brand new, extra harmful virus that may extra simply infect people.
The case was one issue that drove the USDA to broaden its chicken flu surveillance to incorporate nationwide bulk milk testing, which the company introduced on Wednesday, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack informed Reuters in an interview (see subsequent merchandise). “Whereas it’s a unique variation of the virus and it’s tied to wild birds, it’s a issue to ensure that we perceive and recognize precisely the place the virus is in dairy” and in cattle, he stated.
The detection is a warning for pig farmers to be looking out for additional infections, stated Marie Culhane, a professor of veterinary inhabitants drugs on the College of Minnesota who has researched flu viruses in swine. “Individuals want to start out growing their plans to take care of it if it ought to occur in one other herd and one other herd,” Culhane stated. “Pigs are simply actually good at selecting up influenza viruses.”
USDA expands HPAI testing in dairy to reinforce biosecurity
USDA’s APHIS is rolling out a tiered technique to gather milk samples for detecting H5N1 avian influenza. The plan goals to strengthen biosecurity, information containment efforts, and shield farm employees uncovered to contaminated animals. Bulk milk will initially be examined regionally, with additional farm-level sampling as needed. USDA will collaborate with state and personal veterinarians, sustaining testing necessities for cattle earlier than interstate motion to curb virus unfold. Two vaccine candidates for dairy cows are additionally in discipline trials.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/1) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6700 The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.6895 (+0.0080). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8675 and 40# blocks at $1.8375. The weekly common for barrels is $1.8825 (-0.0260) and blocks $1.8725 (-0.0375). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3775. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3805 (+0.0120). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.6050. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.6050 (+0.0015).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East area stakeholders point out butter demand is mild from the retail sector and lighter than anticipated from the meals service sector. Central area stakeholders point out butter demand is regular from the retail sector and blended from the meals service sector. West area stakeholders point out demand from each sectors is regular. Cream volumes are extensively out there. Some butter plant managers are unable to tackle spot hundreds being provided to them. Though some plant downtime is being reported, manufacturing schedules are typically both regular or sturdy all through the nation. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 5 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing varies from regular to stronger all through the U.S. Within the East, cheese plant managers relay regular manufacturing schedules. Contacts notice meals service demand for cheese is down, whereas retail demand is regular. Cheesemakers within the Central area share blended cheese demand. Some cheesemakers share demand has been sturdy to the purpose they’ve oversold. Different contacts notice buyer hesitation as a result of latest cheese worth fluctuation. Milk availability is considerably tight, with spot milk costs reported at $0.50 to $3.00 above Class III within the Central area. Within the West, contacts share cheese manufacturing ranges from regular to stronger. Regardless of tighter milk availability within the Southwest, contacts share milk volumes are enough to satisfy present manufacturing wants.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: General milk manufacturing is regular to stronger throughout the nation. In some hotter states within the Southeast and all through the Midwest, fluid numbers are regular. Farm degree milk is regularly ticking up within the Northeast, Arizona, and New Mexico. Bigger positive factors in manufacturing are being seen within the mountain states and the Pacific Northwest. The higher numbers are being attributed to cooler temperatures and improved cow consolation. Nevertheless, some California farmers are experiencing herd well being points, contributing to the state seeing weaker volumes on the farm degree. Some contacts say part percentages are presently in step with spring flush ranges. The provision of spot a great deal of milk is tight throughout the nation. Spot milk costs reported by Central Class III producers ranged from $.50 to $3-over Class. Class I and Class III milk demand stays regular going into the vacation season. Class I bottling nonetheless pulls important quantities of milk, and a few Class III processors are making as a lot cheese they’ll with the out there milk. Cream availability is sizeable, and customers say it’s prone to stay that approach for the remainder of the yr. Demand for cream is broadening as the vacations close to. Extra cream is shifting from Class IV to Class III as cream cheese processors start to extend manufacturing. Condensed skim availability is regular within the West and stronger within the Central and East areas. Demand for condensed skim is regular nationally. Cream multiples for all Lessons vary 1.20-1.36 within the East, 1.10-1.30 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.26 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been regular to larger. Home demand is regular to barely stronger based on Western contacts. Dry buttermilk costs have been blended. Spot a great deal of dry buttermilk are tighter in all areas. Dry entire milk costs moved decrease on lighter spot market demand. Dry whey costs ticked regular to larger all through the nation. Model most well-liked volumes of whey are very tight, as processors proceed to place extra assets into processing excessive protein concentrations. Whey protein focus 34% costs continued their just lately bullish run this week on regular demand and quick provides. Lactose costs have been regular this week, whereas 2025 contractual talks are ongoing. Acid casein costs have been blended this week, whereas rennet casein costs shifted decrease.
ORGANIC HIGHLIGHTS: An October 21 discover launched by the USDA’s Agricultural Advertising and marketing Service (AMS) highlighted work accomplished by the Market Information group to increase assortment and distribution of natural agricultural merchandise. The Pennsylvania and Vermont Month-to-month Natural Dairy Stories protecting August 2024 have been launched on November 1, 2024, and confirmed the weighted common worth for fluid milk elevated in each states in comparison with July 2024. The USDA AMS just lately introduced the Natural Dairy Product Promotion (ODPP) program which intends to extend natural dairy product entry for instructional establishments and youth packages. The week 44 retail advert survey contained extra natural dairy advertisements than the week 43 survey. Each natural dairy commodity present in final week’s survey, besides butter, appeared in additional advertisements this week. Essentially the most marketed natural dairy commodity in week 44 was yogurt. Cheese, the second most marketed natural dairy commodity, noticed the biggest proportion progress in natural dairy advertisements from final week.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Whole standard dairy ads decreased by 7 p.c whereas whole natural dairy advertisements elevated by 151 p.c. Standard ice cream in 48-64-ounce containers was essentially the most marketed dairy product. Sliced cheese in 6-8 ounce packages was the second most marketed standard dairy merchandise, with a weighted common marketed worth of $2.66, unchanged from the week prior. Greek yogurt in 4-6-ounce containers was essentially the most marketed standard yogurt product. Half gallon containers of standard milk had a weighted common marketed worth of $1.55, down from $2.33 final week.
