Swine manufacturing in China is anticipated to stay secure in 2026 with a pig crop of 709,500 thousand head. Though sow inventories through the first 4 months of 2025 have been greater than the identical interval in 2024, expectations of weaker hog costs within the second half of the yr might squeeze producer margins, accelerating the exit of smallholders and discouraging sow replenishment. The typical sow stock for 2025 is anticipated to stay roughly unchanged year-over-year, laying the inspiration for secure swine manufacturing in 2026.
A reasonable year-on-year improve in breeding swine imports in 2026 is forecast, following a decrease base in 2025. Massive-scale swine producers proceed to prioritize genetic enchancment as a part of efforts to boost pigs per sow per yr, driving persistent demand for high-quality breeding inventory. As China’s home core breeding system stays underneath growth, imports will proceed to play a essential position in herd genetic renewal.
Pork manufacturing in 2026 is anticipated to carry regular at 57,150 thousand MT CWE, with secure piglet output supporting provide whereas decrease carcass weights and flat demand constrain additional positive aspects. Slaughter is anticipated at 703,800 thousand head.
Pork imports in 2026 are forecast at 1,300 thousand MT CWE, a modest decline on weaker demand and ample home provide. Merchants are cautious amid slower market motion and excessive chilly storage inventories.
September 5, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
